The Denver Nuggets (32-15) battle the Milwaukee Bucks (32-14) on January 29, 2024 at Ball Arena. The Nuggets are favorites, by four points, in a contest featuring a pair of the best players in the NBA, the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo. The over/under is 238.5 in the matchup.
Our computer predictions for Monday’s game can help you place an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Nuggets (-4) to Cover
- Both DraftKings and the model expect the Nuggets to walk away with the win, but the model spread (4.7) is 0.7 points further in their direction.
- So far this season, Denver has put together a 19-26-2 record against the spread.
- The Nuggets have an ATS record of 13-18-2 when playing as at least 4-point favorites this season.
- So far this year, Milwaukee has compiled an 18-27-1 record against the spread.
- The Bucks have been an underdog by 4 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
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Total: Under 238.5
- The model predicts a total 3.2 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
- A total of 13 times so far this season, Denver and its opponent have combined for more than 238.5 points.
- Milwaukee’s games have gone over 238.5 points on 27 occasions this season.
- Nuggets games have hit the over 18 out of 47 times this season.
- So far this year, 28 out of the Bucks’ 46 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-170)
- Prediction: Nuggets 120, Bucks 115
- Denver has won 30, or 71.4%, of the 42 games it has played as the favorite this season.
- Milwaukee was defeated in both of the games it has played as underdogs this season.
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Jamal Murray Points Prop: Over 24.5
- Jamal Murray averages 20.9 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists per contest, shooting 47.5% from the field and 41.5% from downtown with 2.4 made 3-pointers per game.
- Murray’s 20.9 points per game are 3.6 less than Monday’s over/under.
- He has hit the over on his points prop on 13 occasions this season (in 35 games with such a prop).
- Offensively, the Bucks are the second-best team in the NBA (124.4 points per game). On defense, they are 24th (120.1 points allowed per game).
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Brook Lopez Points Prop: Under 11.5
- Brook Lopez gives the Bucks 13.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists per contest while delivering 0.6 steals and 2.8 blocked shots (second in NBA).
- The 13.0 points Lopez scores per game are 1.5 more than his over/under on Monday (11.5).
- Lopez has had 47 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 22 times.
- The Nuggets are putting up 115.1 points per game (16th-ranked in NBA) this season, while ceding 111.0 points per contest (sixth-ranked).
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