The Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) in the NFC Wild Card Round at Raymond James Stadium on Monday, January 15, 2024, and here are some best bets.
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Spread: Buccaneers (+3) to Cover
- While DraftKings has the Eagles winning by three, the model has the Buccaneers taking home the victory, with a considerable margin between the two spreads (10 points). Take the Buccaneers.
- Tampa Bay has covered the spread 11 times this year (11-6-0).
- The Buccaneers have an ATS record of 5-2 when playing as at least 3-point underdogs this season.
- Tampa Bay has covered the spread twice in its last three matchups while putting up a 1-2 record straight-up in those games.
- Philadelphia has gone 7-8-2 ATS this season.
- As 3-point favorites or more, the Eagles are 5-6-2 against the spread.
- Philadelphia is winless against the spread (0-3) and 1-2 overall during its past three matchups.
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Total: Over 43
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (45.1 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (43 points).
- Tampa Bay has played in five games this season where they combined with their opponents to score more than 43 points.
- In the Eagles’ 17 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total nine times.
- The Buccaneers and their opponent have combined to hit the over six out of 17 times this season.
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Moneyline Winner: Buccaneers (+136)
- Prediction:
Tampa Bay 26 – Philadelphia 19 - Philadelphia is 10-4 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 71.4% of those games).
- Tampa Bay has won five, or 45.5%, of the 11 games it has played as an underdog this season.
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Eagles and Buccaneers Splits
| Eagles | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-6 | 9-8 |
| At Home | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| On the Road | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| In Conference | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| In Division | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| One Possession Games | 8-3 | 3-4 |
| Indoor | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Outdoor | 11-5 | 6-6 |
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Jalen Hurts Passing TDs: Under 1.5 (-175)
- Regular Season: 3,858 PASS YDS / 226.9 YPG / 65.4% / 23 TD / 15 INT
- In Eagles’ Last 5 Games: 863 PASS YDS / 172.6 YPG / 62.2% / 4 TD / 5 INT
- In Eagles’ Last 3 Games: 523 PASS YDS / 174.3 YPG / 63.6% / 4 TD / 3 INT
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Hurts Rushing Yards: Under 40.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 157 CAR / 605 YDS / 35.6 YPG / 15 TD
- In Eagles’ Last 5 Games: 36 CAR / 175 YDS / 35 YPG / 3 TD
- In Eagles’ Last 3 Games: 36 CAR / 175 YDS / 35 YPG / 3 TD
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Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards: Under 48.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 59 REC / 592 YDS / 42.3 YPG / 3 TD
- In Eagles’ Last 5 Games: 21 REC / 182 YDS / 36.4 YPG / 1 TD
- In Eagles’ Last 3 Games: 13 REC / 122 YDS / 40.7 YPG / 1 TD
- Goedert is averaging 42.3 receiving yards per game, 6.2 fewer than his prop bet over/under for Monday’s game (48.5).
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Player prop bet insights reflect regular season data only.
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