We have best bets for when the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) hit the field in the Super Bowl at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, February 11, 2024.
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Spread: 49ers (-1.5) to Cover
- Both DraftKings and the model expect the 49ers to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (2.6) is 1.1 points further in their direction.
- San Francisco put together a 9-8-0 ATS record in the regular season, and are 0-2-0 in the playoffs.
- The 49ers have an ATS record of 9-10 as 1.5-point favorites or greater (in the regular season and playoffs).
- San Francisco is winless against the spread in its past three games, and has a 2-1 straight-up record in those contest.
- Kansas City had nine wins in 17 games against the spread during the regular season and is 3-0-0 ATS in the postseason.
- When playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs in the regular season and playoffs, the Chiefs have an ATS record of 3-0.
- Kansas City has covered the spread in each of its last three matchups while putting up a 2-1 record straight-up in those games.
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Total: Under 47.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (43.1 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (47.5 points).
- Kansas City has played four games, regular season and playoffs included, when they and their opponents combined to score more than 47.5 points.
- The 49ers and their opponents combined to go over the point total nine out of 17 times in the regular season, and one of two in the playoffs.
- In Chiefs games during the regular season, combined scoring went over the point total five times. In the playoffs, one of three games have eclipsed the over.
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Moneyline Winner: 49ers (-120)
- Prediction:
San Francisco 23 – Kansas City 20 - San Francisco went 12-5 in games when it was favored on the moneyline during the regular season (winning 70.6% of those games), and is 2-0 in the playoffs.
- Kansas City won both games it played as an underdog in the regular season.
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49ers and Chiefs Splits
| 49ers | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| At Home | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| On the Road | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| In Conference | 10-2 | 8-3 |
| In Division | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| One Possession Games | 1-3 | 5-5 |
| Indoor | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Outdoor | 11-4 | 9-6 |
Want more information about this game? Check out the full preview here!
Patrick Mahomes II Passing Yards: Under 261.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 4,183 PASS YDS / 261.4 YPG / 67.2% / 27 TD / 14 INT
- In Chiefs’ Last 5 Games (reg. season and postseason): 963 PASS YDS / 240.8 YPG / 68.9% / 5 TD / 0 INT
- In Chiefs’ Last 3 Games (reg. season and postseason): 718 PASS YDS / 239.3 YPG / 68% / 4 TD / 0 INT
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Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards: Under 91.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 272 CAR / 1,459 YDS / 91.2 YPG / 14 TD
- In 49ers’ Last 5 Games (reg. season and postseason): 65 CAR / 355 YDS / 88.8 YPG / 5 TD
- In 49ers’ Last 3 Games (reg. season and postseason): 65 CAR / 355 YDS / 88.8 YPG / 5 TD
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Travis Kelce Receiving Yards: Under 70.5 (+100)
- Regular Season: 93 REC / 984 YDS / 65.6 YPG / 5 TD
- In Chiefs’ Last 5 Games (reg. season and postseason): 26 REC / 278 YDS / 69.5 YPG / 3 TD
- In Chiefs’ Last 3 Games (reg. season and postseason): 23 REC / 262 YDS / 87.3 YPG / 3 TD
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Player prop bet insights reflect regular season data only.
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