We have best bets for the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs featuring the Buffalo Bills (11-6) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) squaring off at Highmark Stadium on Monday, January 15, 2024.
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Spread: Steelers (+10) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Bills taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (8.5 points). Lean towards taking the Steelers.
- Pittsburgh has covered the spread in a game 10 times this year (10-7-0).
- Pittsburgh has covered the spread in each of its last three contests while putting up a 3-0 record straight-up in those games.
- Buffalo has posted a 7-10-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Bills don’t have a win ATS (0-4) as a 10-point favorite or greater this season.
- Buffalo is 1-2 against the spread in its past three games, and has a 3-0 straight-up record in those contests.
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Total: Over 39
- In this game, the model projects a total (40.9 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (39 points).
- Pittsburgh has played in eight games this year where they combined with their opponents to score more than 39 points.
- In the Bills’ 17 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total six times.
- In 2023, six Steelers games have hit the over.
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Moneyline Winner: Bills (-500)
- Prediction:
Buffalo 25 – Pittsburgh 16 - Buffalo has won 10 of the 14 games it was the moneyline favorite this season (71.4%).
- Pittsburgh has entered the game as an underdog 10 times this season and won six of those games.
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Bills and Steelers Splits
| Bills | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-6 | 10-7 |
| At Home | 7-2 | 5-4 |
| On the Road | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| In Conference | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| In Division | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| One Possession Games | 6-6 | 9-2 |
| Indoor | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Outdoor | 11-6 | 10-5 |
Interested in more information about this game? Take a look at the full preview here!
Josh Allen Passing Yards: Under 226.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 4,306 PASS YDS / 253.3 YPG / 66.5% / 29 TD / 18 INT
- In Bills’ Last 5 Games: 1,092 PASS YDS / 218.4 YPG / 61.6% / 5 TD / 5 INT
- In Bills’ Last 3 Games: 765 PASS YDS / 255 YPG / 67.4% / 3 TD / 4 INT
- Allen has recorded 253.3 passing yards per game this season, 26.8 yards more than Monday’s over/under.
Check out all of Allen’s props for this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Allen Rushing Yards: Under 39.5 (-105)
- Regular Season: 111 CAR / 524 YDS / 30.8 YPG / 15 TD
- In Bills’ Last 5 Games: 49 CAR / 182 YDS / 36.4 YPG / 6 TD
- In Bills’ Last 3 Games: 49 CAR / 182 YDS / 36.4 YPG / 6 TD
- Allen’s rushing yards over/under is set at 39.5 yards, compared to his season average of 30.8 yards per game.
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Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards: Under 67.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 107 REC / 1,183 YDS / 69.6 YPG / 8 TD
- In Bills’ Last 5 Games: 24 REC / 214 YDS / 42.8 YPG / 0 TD
- In Bills’ Last 3 Games: 16 REC / 142 YDS / 47.3 YPG / 0 TD
See all of Diggs’ props for this matchup and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Player prop bet insights reflect regular season data only.
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