In a game featuring one of the best squads in the NBA defensively against one of the highest-scoring squads, the Denver Nuggets (27-13) battle the Indiana Pacers (23-15) at Ball Arena on January 14, 2024. The Nuggets are second in points allowed per game (111.1), and the Pacers are first in points scored (126.6). Denver is a strong favorite, by 10.5 points. The matchup has an over/under set at 241 points.
Aiming to make an informed wager on Sunday’s game? See the best bets available in this matchup (based on our computer predictions) in this article.
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Spread: Pacers (+10.5) to Cover
- The Nuggets are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (10.5 to 5.6 points). Take the Pacers and the points.
- Indiana has a 22-15-1 record against the spread this season.
- The Pacers have been an underdog by 10.5 points or more this year twice, and failed to cover both times.
- Denver’s ATS record is 18-21-1 this season.
- The Nuggets have covered the spread three times this season (3-1 ATS) when playing as at least 10.5-point favorites.
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Total: Under 241
- The DraftKings point total for this game is just 2.6 points highter than the model projection.
- In nine games this year, Denver and its opponent have combined to score more than 241 points.
- So far this season, 24 Indiana’s games have featured more than 241 points scored.
- A total of 17 out of the Nuggets’ 40 games this season have hit the over.
- Pacers games have hit the over 24 out of 38 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-535)
- Prediction: Nuggets 122, Pacers 116
- Denver has entered the game as favorites 37 times this season and won 26, or 70.3%, of those games.
- Indiana has been chosen as underdogs in 20 games this year and has walked away with the win 12 times (60%) in those games.
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Aaron Gordon Points Prop: Over 13.5
- Aaron Gordon puts up 13.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per contest, shooting 54.8% from the floor.
- The 13.5-point over/under set for Gordon on Sunday is 0.4 lower than his scoring average of 13.9.
- He has gone over 18 times on a points prop this season (in 34 opportunities).
- In 2023-24, the Pacers are best in the league on offense (126.6 points scored per game) but third-worst on defense (123.4 points conceded).
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Myles Turner Points Prop: Under 16.5
- Myles Turner is averaging 17.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest. He’s also sinking 53.6% of his shots from the floor and 34.3% from 3-point range, with 1.3 triples per contest.
- Sunday’s prop bet for Turner is 16.5 points, 0.7 fewer than his season average.
- Turner is 19-for-38 at hitting the over on his points prop this season.
- The Nuggets have a top-five defense this year, ranking second-best in the league with 111.1 points allowed per game. On offense, they rank 13th with 116.2 points scored per contest.
Check out the prop bets available for Myles Turner and other Pacers players in this game and sign up to place your bets with DraftKings Sportsbook.
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