The efficient offense of the Boston Celtics (29-9) will face the stalwart defense of the Houston Rockets (19-18) at TD Garden on January 13, 2024. The Celtics are favored by 14.5 points. The point total for the matchup is set at 226.5.
Dive into the best bets available (based on our computer predictions) for Saturday’s game, before you make an informed wager on the contest.
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Spread: Rockets (+14.5) to Cover
- The spread for this game suggested by the model (9.7 points) is much tighter than the 14.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Celtics, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Rockets to cover.
- Houston is 20-15-2 against the spread this season.
- Boston is 18-18-2 against the spread this season.
- The Celtics have covered the spread once when favored by 14.5 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
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Total: Over 226.5
- The model projects a total 1.3 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
- Boston’s games have finished with more than 226.5 points 23 times so far this season.
- Houston’s games have had over 226.5 points 14 times this year.
- Celtics games have hit the over 21 out of 38 times this season.
- In the Rockets’ 37 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 16 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-1200)
- Prediction: Celtics 119, Rockets 109
- This season, Boston has won 28 out of the 36 games, or 77.8%, in which it has been favored.
- Houston has been an underdog in 25 games this season and has come away with the win nine times (36%) in those contests.
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Jayson Tatum Points Prop: Under 25.5
- Jayson Tatum puts up 27.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.0 steal and 0.5 blocks.
- The 25.5 points prop total set for Tatum on Saturday is 1.7 fewer points than his scoring average on the season (27.2).
- In 37 games this season with a points prop total, Tatum has gone over the total 18 times.
- The Rockets are 23rd in the NBA in points scored (112.6 per game) and second-best in points conceded (110.5).
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Alperen Sengun Points Prop: Under 20.5
- Alperen Sengun is putting up 21.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists per contest. He’s also draining 54.3% of his shots from the field.
- Saturday’s prop bet for Sengun is 20.5 points, 1.3 fewer than his season average.
- This season Sengun is 25-for-38 at going over the over/under set for him in terms of points.
- The Celtics have a top-five offense this year, ranking fifth-best in the league with 120.8 points per game. At the other end of the court, they rank sixth with 111.6 points allowed per contest.
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