The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) host the Miami Dolphins (11-6) at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs, with best bets available, on Saturday, January 13, 2024.
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Spread: Dolphins (+5) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Chiefs taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (2.5 points). Lean towards taking the Dolphins.
- Miami has covered the spread 10 times over 17 games with a set total.
- Miami is 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 overall over its last three matchups.
- Kansas City’s ATS record is 9-7-1 this season.
- The Chiefs have an ATS record of 5-4-1 as 5-point favorites or more.
- Kansas City is 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 overall in its last three games.
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Total: Over 43.5
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (45.6 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (43.5 points).
- Miami has played in 11 games this season where they and their opponents combined to score more than 43.5 points.
- In the Chiefs’ 17 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total five times.
- So far this season, nine out of the Dolphins’ 17 games with a set over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Chiefs (-238)
- Prediction:
Kansas City 24 – Miami 22 - Kansas City has won nine of the 15 games it was favored on the moneyline this season (60%).
- This season, Miami has won one out of the five games in which it has been the underdog.
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Chiefs and Dolphins Splits
| Chiefs | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-6 | 11-5 |
| At Home | 4-4 | 7-2 |
| On the Road | 6-2 | 4-3 |
| In Conference | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| In Division | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| One Possession Games | 5-5 | 4-2 |
| Indoor | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Outdoor | 9-6 | 11-5 |
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Tua Tagovailoa Passing TDs: Under 1.5 (-166)
- Regular Season: 4,624 PASS YDS / 272 YPG / 69.3% / 29 TD / 14 INT
- In Dolphins’ Last 5 Games: 1,167 PASS YDS / 233.4 YPG / 67.3% / 5 TD / 4 INT
- In Dolphins’ Last 3 Games: 703 PASS YDS / 234.3 YPG / 61.8% / 4 TD / 4 INT
- Tagovailoa has a passing touchdown in 16 of 17 games this season, with multiple passing TDs in eight of them.
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Patrick Mahomes II Rushing Yards: Under 26.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 75 CAR / 389 YDS / 24.3 YPG / 0 TD
- Mahomes has averaged 24.3 rushing yards per game this season, 2.2 less than Saturday’s over/under.
- Mahomes has hit his rushing yards over in 50.0% of his opportunities (four of eight games).
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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards: Under 81.5 (-115)
- Regular Season: 119 REC / 1,799 YDS / 112.4 YPG / 13 TD
- In Dolphins’ Last 5 Games: 26 REC / 318 YDS / 79.5 YPG / 1 TD
- In Dolphins’ Last 3 Games: 22 REC / 257 YDS / 85.7 YPG / 1 TD
- Hill’s 112.4 receiving yards per game average is 30.9 more than his prop bet total for Saturday’s matchup (81.5).
- Hill has hit the over on receiving yards prop bets in 50.0% of his games (four of eight).
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Player prop bet insights reflect regular season data only.
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