The Denver Nuggets (17-10) play the Dallas Mavericks (16-9) on December 18, 2023 at Ball Arena. The Nuggets are big favorites, by 7.5 points, in a matchup featuring a pair of the best players in the league, the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic and the Mavericks’ Luka Doncic. The matchup’s over/under is 238.
Our computer predictions for Monday’s game will help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Mavericks (+7.5) to Cover
- The model and DraftKings both have the Nuggets taking home the win, but the model has them winning by slightly less (5.8 points). Lean towards taking the Mavericks.
- Dallas is 14-11-0 against the spread this year.
- Denver is 11-15-1 against the spread this season.
- The Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-3-1 when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites this season.
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Total: Under 238
- The model predicts a total 6.8 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
- In seven games this year, Denver and its opponent have combined for more than 238 points.
- So far this year, 15 Dallas’ games have featured over 238 points scored.
- In the Nuggets’ 27 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 11 times.
- In the Mavericks’ 25 chances this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 18 times.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-298)
- Prediction: Nuggets 119, Mavericks 113
- Denver has been the favorite in 24 games this season and won 16 (66.7%) of those contests.
- Dallas has come away with two wins in the seven contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
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Nikola Jokic Rebounds Prop: Over 12.5
- Jokic puts up 27.0 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game, shooting 54.1% from the floor and 30.9% from beyond the arc with 1.2 made 3-pointers per contest.
- His per-game rebound average — 12.4 — is 0.1 less than his prop bet over/under in Monday’s game (12.5).
- Bookmakers have listed a rebound total for him 28 times this season, and he has hit the over in 14 of those games.
- In 2023-24, the Mavericks are 23rd in the league in rebounds (42.2 per game) and fourth-worst in rebounds allowed (45.9).
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