The high-octane offense of the Milwaukee Bucks (18-7) will face a tough task when they meet the solid defense of the Houston Rockets (13-9) on December 17, 2023 at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are currently favored by 7.5 points. The matchup has an over/under of 230.5 points.
Dig into the best bets available (based on our computer predictions) for Sunday’s game, before you make an informed wager on the matchup.
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Spread: Rockets (+7.5) to Cover
- The Bucks are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (7.5 to 1.4 points). Take the Rockets and the points.
- So far this season, Houston has compiled a 15-5-2 record against the spread.
- The Rockets have covered the spread twice when an underdog by 7.5 points or more this year (in three opportunities).
- Milwaukee is 11-13-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bucks have covered the spread four times this season (4-6 ATS) when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites.
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Total: Under 230.5
- The model projects a total 1.5 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
- Milwaukee’s games have had more than 230.5 points scored on 20 occasions this year.
- Houston’s games have finished with over 230.5 points scored five times this year.
- The Bucks and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 17 out of 25 times this season.
- In the Rockets’ 22 chances this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total seven times.
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Moneyline Winner: Bucks (-278)
- Prediction: Bucks 115, Rockets 114
- This season, Milwaukee has won 18 out of the 24 games, or 75%, in which it has been favored.
- Houston has been chosen as underdogs in 16 games this year and has walked away with the win seven times (43.8%) in those games.
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Brook Lopez Points Prop: Under 12.5
- Brook Lopez averages 13.0 points, 1.4 assists and 4.6 rebounds per contest.
- The 12.5-point over/under for Lopez on Sunday is 0.5 lower than his scoring average.
- This season, he is 11-for-26 at hitting the over on the over/under set for him in terms of points.
- Offensively the Rockets are the fourth-worst squad in the NBA (109.5 points per game). But on defense they are best (105.1 points allowed per game).
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Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop: Over 12.5
- Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 12.5 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He is draining 47.7% of his shots from the floor and 36.5% from 3-point range, with 1.6 treys per contest.
- Smith Jr. is putting up 12.5 points per game, equal to Sunday’s prop total.
- Smith Jr. has had 23 chances to hit the over on a point prop this season and came through 10 times.
- The Bucks are ceding 119.2 points per game this season (23rd-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really played well offensively, putting up 124.2 points per contest (second-best).
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