In a contest featuring two of the brightest stars in the league, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (14-9) will battle Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks (9-12) on December 11, 2023 at State Farm Arena. The Nuggets are favored by 2.5 points. The matchup’s over/under is set at 242.
Before you place an informed wager on the matchup, take a look at the best bets available in Monday’s game according to our computer predictions.
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Spread: Hawks (+2.5) to Cover
- The model favors the Nuggets by 0.3 points, just 2.2 less than the 2.5-point spread set by DraftKings.
- Atlanta is 5-16-0 ATS this year.
- The Hawks have covered the spread once when an underdog by 2.5 points or more this season (in five opportunities).
- Denver has an 8-14-1 record against the spread this season.
- The Nuggets have an ATS record of 6-12-1 when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites this season.
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Total: Under 242
- In this matchup, the model projects a total (234.5 points) considerably lower than the DraftKings over/under (242 points). Bet on the under.
- Denver’s games have finished with more than 242 points four times so far this year.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over 242 points on 10 occasions this season.
- So far this season, nine out of the Nuggets’ 23 games have hit the over.
- The Hawks and their opponents have combined to go over the point total 12 out of 21 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-142)
- Prediction: Nuggets 118, Hawks 117
- This season, Denver has won 13 out of the 20 games, or 65%, in which it has been favored.
- Atlanta has been chosen as underdogs in 10 games this year and has walked away with the win three times (30%) in those games.
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Nikola Jokic Points Prop: Over 29.5
- Jokic puts up 28.4 points, 13.0 boards and 9.6 assists per contest, shooting 53.5% from the field and 30.4% from beyond the arc with 1.3 made treys per game.
- Jokic has averaged 28.4 points per game during the 2023-24 season, 1.1 points less than Monday’s points prop total.
- In 24 games this season with a points prop total, Jokic has hit the over 12 times.
- In 2023-24, the Hawks are second-best in the league on offense (122.2 points scored per game) but fourth-worst on defense (122.5 points allowed).
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