The Atlanta Falcons (6-6) square off against a familiar opponent (and best bets are available) when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) on Sunday, December 10, 2023 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in an NFC South showdown.
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Spread: Buccaneers (+1.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.1 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
- Tampa Bay has covered the spread seven times over 12 games with a set total.
- The Buccaneers have an ATS record of 5-3 when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs this season.
- Tampa Bay is 1-2 against the spread in its past three games, and has a 2-1 straight-up record in those matchups.
- Atlanta has posted a 4-8-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Falcons have two wins ATS (2-6) as a 1.5-point favorite or greater this season.
- Atlanta is 2-1 against the spread over its past three games, and has a 2-1 straight-up record in those contests.
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Total: Under 41
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 1.7 points higher than the model projection.
- Tampa Bay has played in five games this year where they and their opponents combined to score more than 41 points.
- A total of four out of 12 Falcons games this season have gone over the point total.
- So far this season, four out of the Buccaneers’ 12 games with a set over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Falcons (-122)
- Prediction:
Atlanta 20 – Tampa Bay 19 - Atlanta is 4-4 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 50% of those games).
- Tampa Bay has been an underdog in eight games this season and won two (25%) of those contests.
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Falcons and Buccaneers Splits
| Falcons | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-6 | 5-7 |
| At Home | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| On the Road | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| In Conference | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| In Division | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| One Possession Games | 4-4 | 2-4 |
| Indoor | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| Outdoor | 2-1 | 3-5 |
Want more information about this game? Take a look at the full preview here!
Desmond Ridder Passing TDs: Under 1.5 (-250)
- 2023 Season: 2,029 PASS YDS / 184.5 YPG / 63.3% / 8 TD / 8 INT
- In Falcons’ Last 5 Games: 399 PASS YDS / 99.8 YPG / 56.1% / 2 TD / 2 INT
- In Falcons’ Last 3 Games: 328 PASS YDS / 109.3 YPG / 53.7% / 2 TD / 2 INT
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Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards: Under 68.5 (-110)
- 2023 Season: 159 CAR / 756 YDS / 63 YPG / 3 TD
- In Falcons’ Last 5 Games: 78 CAR / 352 YDS / 70.4 YPG / 3 TD
- In Falcons’ Last 3 Games: 78 CAR / 352 YDS / 70.4 YPG / 3 TD
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Mike Evans Receiving Yards: Under 75.5 (-125)
- 2023 Season: 61 REC / 1,012 YDS / 84.3 YPG / 10 TD
- In Buccaneers’ Last 5 Games: 28 REC / 505 YDS / 101 YPG / 5 TD
- In Buccaneers’ Last 3 Games: 18 REC / 275 YDS / 91.7 YPG / 4 TD
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