In a game between a pair of the top defensive squads in the league, the Boston Celtics (15-5) are 7.5-point favorites against the New York Knicks (12-8) at TD Garden on December 8, 2023. The Celtics are fourth in points allowed per game (108.1), and the Knicks are third (107.5). The point total is set at 221 in the matchup.
Our computer predictions below will help you pick what are the best bets available for Friday’s game.
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Spread: Celtics (-7.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Celtics favored by 7.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (8.8 points).
- So far this season, Boston has compiled an 8-10-2 record against the spread.
- The Celtics have an ATS record of 6-5-1 when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites this season.
- New York is 10-8-2 against the spread this season.
- The Knicks have not covered the spread when an underdog by 7.5 points or more this year (in one opportunity).
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Total: Over 221
- The model’s predicted total (221.8 points) and the DraftKings set total (221 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
- A total of 12 times so far this season, Boston and its opponent have combined for more than 221 points.
- New York’s games have gone over 221 points on nine occasions this season.
- So far this season, nine out of the Celtics’ 20 games have hit the over.
- Knicks games have hit the over 10 out of 20 times this year.
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Moneyline Winner: Celtics (-298)
- Prediction: Celtics 115, Knicks 106
- Boston has entered the game as favorites 20 times this season and won 15, or 75%, of those games.
- New York has been an underdog in eight games this season and has come away with the win two times (25%) in those contests.
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Jayson Tatum Rebounds Prop: Under 9.5
- Jayson Tatum posts 27.4 points, 8.7 boards and 4.1 assists per contest, shooting 49.9% from the field and 36.2% from beyond the arc with 3.1 made treys per contest.
- His per-game rebound average — 8.7 — is 0.8 fewer than his prop bet over/under in Friday’s game (9.5).
- Sportsbooks have listed a rebound total for him 21 times this season, and he has hit the over in eight of those games.
- In 2023-24, the Knicks are fifth-best in the NBA in rebounds (46.1 per game) and second-best in rebounds allowed (40.7).
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Julius Randle Points Prop: Under 20.5
- On a per-game basis, Julius Randle gives the Knicks 20.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
- The 20.4 points Randle scores per game are 0.1 less than his prop total on Friday.
- Randle has exceeded his points prop on 10 occasions this season (in 21 games with such a prop).
- The Celtics are averaging 116.5 points per game this season (ninth-ranked in NBA), but they’ve really played well defensively, surrendering only 108.1 points per game (fourth-best).
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