In a game featuring a pair of the best squads in the NBA defending against the 3-pointer, the Denver Nuggets (14-8) are favored by nine points against the Houston Rockets (9-9) at Ball Arena on December 8, 2023. The Nuggets allow just 11 triples per game (third in league), and the Rockets concede 11.2 (fifth). The point total for the matchup is set at 221.
Our computer predictions for Friday’s game may help you make an informed wager by picking the best bets available.
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Spread: Rockets (+9) to Cover
- The model favors the Nuggets by 3.2 points, a much smaller margin than the 9-point spread set by DraftKings. Take the Rockets to cover.
- So far this season, Houston has compiled an 11-5-2 record against the spread.
- The Rockets have not covered the spread this year (0-0-1 ATS) when playing as at least 9-point underdogs.
- Denver’s ATS record is 8-13-1 this season.
- The Nuggets have been favored by 9 points or more four times this season, and covered the spread in two of those matchups.
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Total: Under 221
- The DraftKings total for this game, 221 points, and the model’s projected total, 220.7 points, are only 0.3 points apart.
- A total of 12 times so far this year, Denver and its opponent have combined for more than 221 points.
- Houston’s games have had over 221 points six times this season.
- So far this season, nine out of the Nuggets’ 22 games have gone over the point total.
- So far this season, six out of the Rockets’ 18 games with an over/under have gone over the point total.
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Moneyline Winner: Nuggets (-395)
- Prediction: Nuggets 112, Rockets 109
- Denver has been the favorite in 19 games this season and won 13 (68.4%) of those contests.
- Houston has won in six, or 40%, of the 15 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
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Aaron Gordon Points Prop: Under 13.5
- Aaron Gordon posts 13.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game, shooting 49.3% from the floor.
- Gordon is averaging 13.1 points during the 2023-24 season, 0.4 less than Friday’s prop total.
- He has gone over on his points prop on eight occasions this season (in 19 games with such a prop).
- On offense the Rockets are the fifth-worst squad in the NBA (110.1 points per game). However on defense they are second-best (106.9 points conceded per game).
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Jalen Green Points Prop: Under 18.5
- Jalen Green gives the Rockets 18.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per contest while putting up 0.6 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.
- Green is putting up 18.8 points per game, 0.3 higher than Friday’s over/under.
- So far this season, Green is 8-for-19 at hitting the over on the total set for his points prop.
- The Nuggets are scoring 114 points per game (14th-ranked in NBA) this year, while ceding 110.5 points per contest (sixth-ranked).
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