The Navy Midshipmen (3-3), boasting the fifth-ranked rushing attack in the country, will take on the No. 22 Air Force Falcons (6-0) and the sixth-ranked rushing D, on Saturday, October 21, 2023. The Falcons are favored, by 11.5 points. The over/under for the outing is 34 points.
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Air Force vs. Navy Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | -11.5 | -110 | -110 | 34 | -110 | -110 |
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Computer Pick
| ATS | Total | Score prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force (-11.5) | Over (34) | Air Force 35 Navy 15 |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Team Stat Comparison
| Air Force | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 37.0 (35) | 20.3 (122) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 14.7 (7) | 23.0 (36) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 2 (3) | 2 (3) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 5 (109) | 9 (49) |
Air Force vs. Navy Betting Insights
Air Force Stats and Trends
- Air Force has won three games against the spread this season, while failing to cover three times.
- The Falcons have not covered the spread when favored by 11.5 points or more this season (in three opportunities).
- Air Force and its opponent have combined to go over the point total four out of six times this season.
- The Falcons and their opponents have gone over 34 combined points in five of six games this season.
- Air Force has an average point total of 44.1 in their contests this year, 10.1 more points than this matchup’s over/under.
Recent Head-to-Head Matchups
In the last three matchups between these two teams, Air Force has a 3-0 advantage over Navy. In those games against the Midshipmen, the Falcons have a 2-1 record against the spread with those games outpacing the point total on one occasion. Air Force outscored Navy 76-20 in those three head-to-head matchups.
Navy Stats and Trends
- Navy has won two games against the spread this season.
- The Midshipmen have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 11.5-point underdogs.
- So far this season, two Navy games have gone over the point total.
- Midshipmen games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 34 points in four of six outings.
- Navy has a 51.1-point average over/under in their contests this season, 17.1 more points than this game’s total.
Air Force Players to Watch
- Emmanuel Michel has rushed for a team-high 497 yards on 113 carries (82.8 yards per game) and eight touchdowns.
- Jared Roznos has nine catches and paces his team with 279 receiving yards (55.8 ypg) while scoring two touchdowns.
- Cade Harris’ stat line this year shows two catches for 82 yards and one touchdown. He averages 27.3 receiving yards per game.
- This season Brandon Engel has caught two passes for 46 yards, averaging 15.3 receiving yards per game.
Navy Players to Watch
- Tai Lavatai leads the team with 426 passing yards (71.0 yards per game) and has a 51.9% completion percentage this year (27-of-52) while throwing three touchdowns. He also has 163 rushing yards on 53 carries with two touchdowns, averaging 27.2 yards per game.
- Alex Tecza has rushed for a team-leading 503 yards on 62 carries (83.8 yards per game) while scoring four touchdowns.
- So far this year Daba Fofana has run for 229 yards on 54 carries (38.2 ypg), with one rushing touchdown.
- Eli Heidenreich has four catches, leading his team with 156 yards (26.0 ypg) while hauling in two touchdowns this season.
- Brandon Chatman has also chipped in with 146 yards on seven catches. He averages 24.3 receiving yards per game this year.
- This season Nathan Kent has caught four passes for 77 yards and one touchdown, averaging 25.7 receiving yards per game.
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