Air Force vs. Navy: College Football Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – October 21, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 15, 2023

The Navy Midshipmen (3-3), boasting the fifth-ranked rushing attack in the country, will take on the No. 22 Air Force Falcons (6-0) and the sixth-ranked rushing D, on Saturday, October 21, 2023. The Falcons are favored, by 11.5 points. The over/under for the outing is 34 points.

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Air Force vs. Navy Odds

Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Air Force -11.5 -110 -110 34 -110 -110

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Computer Pick

Computer picks for Air Force vs Navy
ATS Total Score prediction
Air Force (-11.5) Over (34) Air Force 35 Navy 15

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Team Stat Comparison

Air Force Navy
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 37.0 (35) 20.3 (122)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 14.7 (7) 23.0 (36)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 2 (3) 2 (3)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 5 (109) 9 (49)

Air Force vs. Navy Betting Insights

Air Force Stats and Trends

  • Air Force has won three games against the spread this season, while failing to cover three times.
  • The Falcons have not covered the spread when favored by 11.5 points or more this season (in three opportunities).
  • Air Force and its opponent have combined to go over the point total four out of six times this season.
  • The Falcons and their opponents have gone over 34 combined points in five of six games this season.
  • Air Force has an average point total of 44.1 in their contests this year, 10.1 more points than this matchup’s over/under.

Recent Head-to-Head Matchups

In the last three matchups between these two teams, Air Force has a 3-0 advantage over Navy. In those games against the Midshipmen, the Falcons have a 2-1 record against the spread with those games outpacing the point total on one occasion. Air Force outscored Navy 76-20 in those three head-to-head matchups.

Navy Stats and Trends

  • Navy has won two games against the spread this season.
  • The Midshipmen have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 11.5-point underdogs.
  • So far this season, two Navy games have gone over the point total.
  • Midshipmen games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 34 points in four of six outings.
  • Navy has a 51.1-point average over/under in their contests this season, 17.1 more points than this game’s total.

Air Force Players to Watch

  • Emmanuel Michel has rushed for a team-high 497 yards on 113 carries (82.8 yards per game) and eight touchdowns.
  • Jared Roznos has nine catches and paces his team with 279 receiving yards (55.8 ypg) while scoring two touchdowns.
  • Cade Harris’ stat line this year shows two catches for 82 yards and one touchdown. He averages 27.3 receiving yards per game.
  • This season Brandon Engel has caught two passes for 46 yards, averaging 15.3 receiving yards per game.

Navy Players to Watch

  • Tai Lavatai leads the team with 426 passing yards (71.0 yards per game) and has a 51.9% completion percentage this year (27-of-52) while throwing three touchdowns. He also has 163 rushing yards on 53 carries with two touchdowns, averaging 27.2 yards per game.
  • Alex Tecza has rushed for a team-leading 503 yards on 62 carries (83.8 yards per game) while scoring four touchdowns.
  • So far this year Daba Fofana has run for 229 yards on 54 carries (38.2 ypg), with one rushing touchdown.
  • Eli Heidenreich has four catches, leading his team with 156 yards (26.0 ypg) while hauling in two touchdowns this season.
  • Brandon Chatman has also chipped in with 146 yards on seven catches. He averages 24.3 receiving yards per game this year.
  • This season Nathan Kent has caught four passes for 77 yards and one touchdown, averaging 25.7 receiving yards per game.

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