New Mexico State vs. Fresno State: Isleta New Mexico Bowl Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – December 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on December 8, 2023

The New Mexico State Aggies are the favorites, but by less than a touchdown (-3.5), in this year’s Isleta New Mexico Bowl, where they will oppose the Fresno State Bulldogs. University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico will act as host on December 16, 2023, starting at 5:45 PM ETand airing on ESPN. An over/under of 51.5 points has been set for the contest.

Want to bet on New Mexico State or Fresno State in this matchup? Head to DraftKings Sportsbook to place your wager today!

New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Odds

Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
New Mexico State -3.5 -108 -112 51.5 -112 -108

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Computer Pick

Computer picks for New Mexico State vs Fresno State
ATS Total Score prediction
Fresno State (+3.5) Under (51.5) New Mexico State 27 Fresno State 24

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Team Stat Comparison

New Mexico State Fresno State
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 28.7 (33) 29.9 (52)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 21.8 (58) 24.6 (53)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 11 (40) 11 (40)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 9 (111) 20 (5)

New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Betting Insights

New Mexico State Stats and Trends

  • New Mexico State has covered 11 times in 14 games with a spread this season.
  • The Aggies have an ATS record of 3-1 when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this season.
  • In New Mexico State’s 14 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total five times.
  • Aggies games this season have gone over this contest’s total of 51.5 points four times.
  • The average point total in New Mexico State’s contests this year is 51.5, the same as this game’s over/under.

Fresno State Stats and Trends

  • Fresno State has won four games against the spread this year, failing to cover eight times.
  • The Bulldogs have been an underdog by 3.5 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
  • In Fresno State’s 12 contests this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total seven times.
  • The Bulldogs and their opponents have combined to score more than 51.5 points in seven of 12 games this season.
  • Fresno’s games this year have had a 51.9-point total on average, 0.4 more points than this matchup’s over/under.

New Mexico State Players to Watch

  • Diego Pavia has thrown for 2,915 yards while completing 61.6% of his passes (210-of-341), with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year (208.2 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 158 times for 862 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 61.6 yards per game.
  • Star Thomas has 643 yards on 111 carries (45.9 ypg), with four rushing touchdowns.
  • Jonathan Brady has racked up 37 receptions for 613 yards, best on his team, and four touchdowns. He averages 43.8 receiving yards per game.
  • Trent Hudson has tacked on 34 receptions for 545 yards and 10 touchdowns.
  • This season Eli Stowers has caught 32 passes for 346 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 26.6 receiving yards per game.

Fresno State Players to Watch

  • Mikey Keene leads the team with 2,590 passing yards (215.8 yards per game) and has a 65.8% completion percentage this year (250-of-380) while throwing 21 touchdowns with nine interceptions.
  • Malik Sherrod has run for a team-leading 877 yards on 152 attempts (79.7 yards per game) while scoring nine touchdowns. He also averages 16.5 receiving yards per game, grabbing 35 passes for 181 yards and one touchdown.
  • Elijah Gilliam has run for 357 yards on 93 carries (32.5 yards per game), with five touchdowns on the ground this year.
  • This season Erik Brooks has 53 receptions for a team-high 686 receiving yards (57.2 per game) and five touchdowns.
  • Jalen Moss has added 51 receptions for 624 yards and five touchdowns.
  • This season Mac Dalena has caught 43 passes for 497 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 41.4 receiving yards per game.

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