The No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels (6-0) bring the 11th-ranked passing attack in college football into a clash versus the Virginia Cavaliers (1-5), who have the No. 20 passing D, on Saturday, October 21, 2023. The Tar Heels are major, 24-point favorites. An over/under of 58 points has been set for the contest.
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North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | -24 | -108 | -112 | 58 | -112 | -108 |
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Computer Pick
| ATS | Total | Score prediction |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina (-24) | Under (58) | North Carolina 42 Virginia 16 |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Team Stat Comparison
| North Carolina | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 37.3 (33) | 22.3 (112) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 21 (27) | 31.8 (93) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 2 (3) | 10 (91) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 12 (13) | 5 (109) |
North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Insights
North Carolina Stats and Trends
- North Carolina has won five games against the spread this season, while failing to cover once.
- North Carolina and its opponent have combined to go over the point total three out of six times this season.
- In three of six games this season, the Heels and their opponents have gone over 58 points.
- The average total in UNC’s contests this year is 56.5, 1.5 fewer points than this game’s over/under.
Recent Head-to-Head Matchups
North Carolina holds an edge against Virginia over the past three matchups between these two squads, collecting a 2-1 record in those games. In those games against the Tar Heels, the Cavaliers have a 2-1 record against the spread with those games outpacing the total on two occasions. North Carolina has had the upper hand scoring in those three matchups, scoring 131 points while Virginia put up 111.
Virginia Stats and Trends
- Virginia has won four games against the spread this year, failing to cover twice.
- The Cavaliers have not covered the spread this year (0-1 ATS) when playing as at least 24-point underdogs.
- In 2023, four Virginia games have hit the over.
- The Cavs and their opponents have scored more than 58 combined points twice this season.
- The average over/under for UVA’s matchups this season is 47.1, 10.9 fewer points than this game’s total.
North Carolina Players to Watch
- Caleb Hood has churned out a team-high 43 rushing yards (14.3 yards per game) and scored one touchdown.
- Devontez Walker has totaled 19 rushing yards on two carries (9.5 yards per game) this season. He also has 12 catches for 175 yards (87.5 per game) and three touchdowns.
- This season Andre Greene Jr. is averaging 4 yards per game, with one catch for 4 yards.
Virginia Players to Watch
- Dave Herard has churned out a team-best 8 rushing yards (1.3 per game) and zero touchdowns.
- Grady Brosterhous has run for 1 yards on one carry (1 yards per game) this year.
- Sackett Wood Jr. has four catches and paces his team with 61 receiving yards (20.3 ypg).
- Jaden GIbson has also added 49 yards on four catches. He averages 16.3 receiving yards per game this year.
- This season Sean Wilson has caught three passes for 47 yards, averaging 15.7 receiving yards per game.
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