A pair of SEC teams square off when the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-5) face off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3) on Saturday, October 21, 2023 at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. The Razorbacks are favored by 6.5 points. The over/under is set at 46.5 in the contest.
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Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | -6.5 | -110 | -110 | 46.5 | -110 | -110 |
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Computer Pick
| ATS | Total | Score prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas (-6.5) | Over (46.5) | Arkansas 33 Mississippi State 24 |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Team Stat Comparison
| Arkansas | Mississippi State | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 29.9 (51) | 30.2 (74) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 25.1 (81) | 29.5 (83) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 7 (47) | 6 (29) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 11 (20) | 8 (60) |
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Betting Insights
Arkansas Stats and Trends
- Arkansas has won four games against the spread this season, while failing to cover three times.
- The Razorbacks have covered the spread once when favored by 6.5 points or more this season (in three opportunities).
- Arkansas games have hit the over four out of seven times this season.
- The Hogs and their opponents have gone over 46.5 combined points in five of seven games this season.
- Arkansas’ contests this year have an average total of 54.6, 8.1 more points than this matchup’s over/under.
Recent Head-to-Head Matchups
Arkansas holds an edge against Mississippi State in the past three matchups between these two teams, putting together a 2-1 record in those games. In those games against the Razorbacks, the Bulldogs have a 2-1 record against the spread with those games outpacing the point total on two occasions. Mississippi State put up 82 points in those three matchups compared to Arkansas’ 69.
Mississippi State Stats and Trends
- Mississippi State has won just one game against the spread this season.
- The Bulldogs have been an underdog by 6.5 points or more this season twice, and failed to cover both times.
- Mississippi State games have gone over the point total four out of six times this season.
- Every game the Bulldogs have played this season has gone over 46.5 combined points scored.
- The average over/under for State’s matchups this season is 53.7, 7.2 more points than this game’s total.
Arkansas Players to Watch
- K.J. Jefferson leads his team with 1,450 passing yards (207.1 per game) and has a 66% completion percentage (124-of-188), throwing 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He also has 162 rushing yards on 96 carries (with one touchdown), averaging 23.1 yards per game.
- AJ Green has 38 attempts for a team-high 239 rushing yards (34.1 per game) and two touchdowns.
- Rashod Dubinion has run for 213 yards on 65 carries (30.4 yards per game), with one touchdown on the ground this year.
- This season Andrew Armstrong has 39 receptions for a team-high 485 receiving yards (69.3 per game) and four touchdowns.
- Luke Hasz has added 253 yards (on 16 catches) and three touchdowns.
- Isaac TeSlaa is averaging 29.4 yards per game, racking up 19 receptions for 206 yards and one touchdown.
Mississippi State Players to Watch
- This year, Will Rogers has racked up 1,275 passing yards (212.5 yards per game) while connecting on 105 of 171 passes (61.4% completion percentage), with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions.
- Jo’quavious Marks has run for a team-leading 458 yards on 80 carries (76.3 yards per game) while scoring four touchdowns. He also averages 22.7 receiving yards per game, grabbing 17 passes for 136 yards.
- So far this year Mike Wright has run for 138 yards on 20 carries (23 ypg), with three rushing touchdowns.
- Lideatrick Griffin has racked up 29 receptions for 474 yards, best on his team, and three touchdowns. He averages 79 receiving yards per game.
- Justin Robinson has tacked on 144 yards (on 12 catches).
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