The Air Force Falcons (4-0) will face off against the San Diego State Aztecs (2-3) in a matchup of MWC teams on Saturday, September 30, 2023 at Falcon Stadium. The Aztecs are currently an underdog by 10.5 points. The over/under for the outing is 42.5 points.
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Air Force vs. San Diego State Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | -10.5 | -110 | -110 | 42.5 | -110 | -110 |
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Computer Pick
| ATS | Total | Score prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force (-10.5) | Over (42.5) | Air Force 36 San Diego State 18 |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Team Stat Comparison
| Air Force | San Diego State | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 34.8 (46) | 21.2 (85) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 12.8 (13) | 27.2 (108) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 2 (6) | 9 (115) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 4 (95) | 10 (7) |
Air Force vs. San Diego State Betting Insights
Air Force Stats and Trends
- Air Force has covered twice in four chances against the spread this season.
- The Falcons have not covered the spread this season (0-2 ATS) when playing as at least 10.5-point favorites.
- So far this season, two Air Force games have gone over the point total.
- The Falcons and their opponents have gone over 42.5 combined points in three of four games this season.
- The average total in Air Force’s outings this year is 44.9, 2.4 more points than this game’s over/under.
Recent Head-to-Head Matchups
San Diego State and Air Force have split their last two matchups 1-1. The Falcons and Aztecs have an even 1-1 record against the spread in those games with the two squads not outscoring the point total once. Air Force outscored San Diego State 27-23 in those two head-to-head matchups.
San Diego State Stats and Trends
- San Diego State has put together a 3-2-0 ATS record so far this season.
- The Aztecs have covered the spread once this year (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 10.5-point underdogs.
- San Diego State games have gone over the point total twice this season.
- The Aztecs have combined with their opponent to score more than 42.5 points in three of five games this season.
- SDSU has a 48.8-point average over/under in their outings this season, 6.3 more points than this game’s total.
Air Force Players to Watch
- Emmanuel Michel has run for a team-high 322 yards on 73 carries (80.5 yards per game) and six touchdowns.
- Jared Roznos has four catches, leading his team with 166 yards (55.3 ypg) while scoring one touchdown this season.
- Brandon Engel has also contributed with one catch for 28 yards this year. He puts up 14.0 receiving yards per game.
- This season John Lee Eldridge III is averaging 3.5 yards per game, with one catch for 14 yards.
San Diego State Players to Watch
- Jalen Mayden has thrown for 944 yards while completing 62% of his passes (85-of-137), with four touchdowns and four interceptions this year (188.8 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 57 times for 268 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 53.6 yards per game.
- Jaylon Armstead has run for 228 yards on 48 carries (45.6 yards per game), with four touchdowns on the ground this year.
- Mark Redman has 16 catches and paces his team with 193 receiving yards (38.6 ypg) while scoring two touchdowns.
- Brionne Penny has also contributed with 13 catches for 187 yards this year. He puts up 46.8 receiving yards per game.
- Baylin Brooks has totaled 177 yards on 10 receptions with one touchdown, averaging 44.3 yards per game.
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