The No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2) will meet in a matchup of SEC teams on Saturday, September 30, 2023 at Davis Wade Stadium. The Bulldogs will need to play a near perfect game to pull off an upset, Vegas has them as 15.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 46 in the contest.
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Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -15.5 | -110 | -110 | 46 | -110 | -110 |
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Computer Pick
| ATS | Total | Score prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama (-15.5) | Over (46) | Alabama 44 Mississippi State 7 |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Team Stat Comparison
| Alabama | Mississippi State | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 30.3 (67) | 30.8 (64) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 13.5 (15) | 27.3 (81) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 4 (31) | 3 (14) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 5 (76) | 7 (38) |
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Betting Insights
Alabama Stats and Trends
- Alabama has won two games against the spread this season.
- The Crimson Tide have covered the spread once when favored by 15.5 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
- So far this season, two Alabama games have hit the over.
- The Tide and their opponents have combined to score more than 46 points twice this season (over four games).
- Bama has an average point total of 55.6 in their outings this year, 9.6 more points than this matchup’s over/under.
Recent Head-to-Head Matchups
Alabama has a 3-0 advantage over Mississippi State in the past three matchups between these two squads. The Crimson Tide are 3-0 against the spread in those games against the Bulldogs while the two teams haven’t managed to go over the total. Alabama outscored Mississippi State 120-15 in those three head-to-head matchups.
Mississippi State Stats and Trends
- Mississippi State has won one game against the spread this season.
- This season, games featuring Mississippi State have hit the over twice.
- Every game the Bulldogs have played this season has gone over 46 combined points scored.
- State’s matchups this season have a 55.3-point average over/under, 9.3 more points than this game’s total.
Alabama Players to Watch
- Jalen Milroe has passed for 674 yards while completing 66.7% of his throws (44-of-66), with six touchdowns and three interceptions (224.7 yards per game). He’s also rushed 38 times for 120 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 40 yards per game.
- Jase McClellan has run for a team-leading 263 yards on 52 carries (65.8 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns.
- Roydell Williams has run for 198 yards on 38 carries (49.5 yards per game), with one touchdown on the ground this year.
- This season Jermaine Burton has eight catches and leads the team with 189 yards (47.3 per game) while hauling in two touchdowns.
- Isaiah Bond has tacked on 162 yards (on 11 catches) and one touchdown.
- This season Amari Niblack is averaging 32.3 yards per game, with five catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns.
Mississippi State Players to Watch
- Will Rogers has passed for 979 yards while completing 60.7% of his throws (74-of-122), with six touchdowns and one interception (244.8 yards per game).
- Jo’quavious Marks has racked up a team-high 352 rushing yards (88 yards per game) and scored four touchdowns. He has tacked on 14 catches for 105 yards (26.3 receiving yards per game).
- So far this year Mike Wright has rushed for 95 yards on 10 carries (23.8 ypg), with one rushing touchdown.
- Lideatrick Griffin has 20 catches and paces his team with 388 receiving yards (97 ypg) while scoring three touchdowns.
- Justin Robinson has chipped in with 12 catches for 144 yards this year. He puts up 36 receiving yards per game.
- Zavion Thomas has 108 receiving yards on eight receptions, averaging 36 yards per game.
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