The Baylor Bears (0-0) square off against the Texas State Bobcats (0-0) on Saturday, September 2, 2023 at McLane Stadium. The Bears are undoubtedly the favorites in this one, with the line posted at 27 points. The over/under in this outing is 59 points.
Baylor vs. Texas State Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | -27 | -110 | -110 | 59 | -110 | -110 |
Computer Pick
| ATS | Total | Score prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State (+27) | Under (59) | Baylor 40 Texas State 13 |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Team Stat Comparison (2022)
| Baylor | Texas State | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 32.2 (41) | 21.1 (114) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 26.8 (78) | 26.3 (52) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 15 (38) | 16 (50) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 18 (47) | 18 (47) |
Baylor vs. Texas State Betting Insights (2022)
Baylor Stats and Trends
- Baylor won seven games against the spread last season, failing to cover six times.
- The Bears won each of their two games last season when playing as at least 27-point favorites.
- Baylor games went over the point total nine out of 13 times last season.
- The Bears and their opponents went over 59 combined points in six of 13 games last season.
- Baylor had an average total of 53.7 in its contests last season, 5.3 fewer points than this game’s over/under.
Recent Head-to-Head Matchups
Baylor has a 2-0 advantage over Texas State in the past two matchups between these two teams. The Bears and Bobcats have a split 1-1 record against the spread in those games with the two squads not outscoring the point total once. Baylor scored 71 points in those two matchups compared to Texas State’s 27.
Texas State Stats and Trends (2022)
- Texas State put together a 5-7-0 record against the spread last season.
- The Bobcats were an underdog by 27 points or more last year once, and failed to cover the spread.
- Last season, six Texas State games hit the over.
- The Bobcats played three games last season that finished with a point total above 59 points.
- Texas State had a 51.7-point average over/under in its matchups last year, 7.3 fewer points than this game’s point total.
Baylor Players to Watch (2022 Stats)
- Last season Blake Shapen totaled 2,790 passing yards (214.6 per game) while going 233-for-368 (63.3%) and throwing for 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
- Richard Reese rushed for 972 yards on 198 carries (74.8 yards per game) and scored 14 touchdowns a season ago.
- Last year Craig Williams ran for 557 yards on 101 carries (50.6 yards per game), with four rushing touchdowns.
- Last season Monaray Baldwin was targeted zero times and had 33 catches for 565 yards and four touchdowns.
- Gavin Holmes’ stat line last year showed 27 grabs for 521 yards and four touchdowns. He put up 47.4 yards per game.
- Josh Cameron caught 28 passes for 386 yards, averaging 35.1 yards per game.
- Garmon Randolph had a solid body of work a year ago, registering four sacks, five TFL and 41 tackles.
- Dillon Doyle collected 93 tackles and two interceptions over the course of his last campaign.
- Christian Morgan intercepted three passes and tacked on 51 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and three passes defended last season.
Texas State Players to Watch (2022 Stats)
- Layne Hatcher racked up 2,654 passing yards (221.2 per game) with a 62% completion percentage last year (273-for-440), throwing for 19 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
- Lincoln Pare ran for 760 yards on 172 attempts (63.3 yards per game) and scored five touchdowns a season ago. He also averaged 19.1 receiving yards per game, grabbing 29 passes for 229 yards and one TD.
- Last season Calvin Hill rushed for 338 yards on 76 carries (48.3 yards per game), with one rushing touchdown.
- Last season Ashtyn Hawkins hauled in 55 passes for 582 yards (64.7 per game) with seven touchdowns.
- Marcell Barbee also added 299 yards on 21 grabs and one touchdown. He was targeted zero times, and averaged 42.7 receiving yards last year.
- Charles Brown caught 22 passes on zero targets for 297 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 27.0 receiving yards per game.
- Last season Nelson Mbanasor registered five sacks, eight TFL and 37 tackles.
- Over the course of his 2022 campaign, Sione Tupou racked up 90 tackles, three TFL, one sack, and two interceptions.
- Kordell Rodgers picked off four passes and tacked on 17 tackles, one TFL, and one pass defended last season.
