The UMass Minutemen (0-0) will look to upset the New Mexico State Aggies (0-0) on Saturday, August 26, 2023 at Aggie Memorial Stadium. The Aggies are notable favorites in this one, with the spread sitting at 7 points. The over/under for the contest is 45.5 points.
New Mexico State vs. UMass Odds
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | -7 | -105 | -115 | 45.5 | -110 | -110 |
Computer Pick
| ATS | Total | Score prediction |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State (-7) | Over (45.5) | New Mexico State 31 UMass 15 |
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Team Stat Comparison (2022)
| New Mexico State | UMass | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 25.5 (78) | 12.5 (131) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 23.9 (47) | 31.1 (91) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 18 (75) | 19 (91) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 13 (102) | 17 (60) |
New Mexico State vs. UMass Betting Insights (2022)
New Mexico State Stats and Trends
- New Mexico State went 8-5-0 ATS last season.
- The Aggies covered the spread twice when favored by 7 points or more last season (in three opportunities).
- New Mexico State games hit the over six out of 13 times last season.
- The Aggies’ 13 games last season went over this contest’s total of 45.5 points six times.
- The average total in New Mexico State’s outings last season was 48.3, 2.8 more points than the over/under for this game.
Recent Head-to-Head Matchups
In the last two matchups between these two teams, New Mexico State has a 2-0 advantage over UMass. The Aggies have a 2-0 record against the spread in those games against the Minutemen, with the two squads eclipsing the point total on one occasion. New Mexico State outscored UMass 67-40 in those two head-to-head matchups.
UMass Stats and Trends (2022)
- UMass went 5-7-0 ATS last season.
- The Minutemen covered the spread four times last season (4-6 ATS) when playing as at least 7-point underdogs.
- UMass and its opponent combined to go over the point total four out of 12 times last season.
- The Minutemen played five games last season that had more than 45.5 combined points scored.
- UMass had a 47.0-point average over/under in its outings last year, 1.5 more points than the point total for this game.
New Mexico State Players to Watch (2022 Stats)
- Last season Diego Pavia collected 1,442 passing yards (120.2 per game) while going 100-for-189 (52.9%) and throwing for 13 touchdowns with six interceptions. He tacked on 504 rushing yards on 93 carries with six touchdowns, averaging 42.0 yards per game.
- Star Thomas ran for 524 yards on 108 attempts (40.3 yards per game) and scored five touchdowns a season ago.
- Last season Justice Powers reeled in 20 passes for 440 yards (40.0 per game) while scoring one touchdown.
- Kordell David’s stat line last year revealed 24 grabs for 343 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 42.9 yards per game.
- Jonathan Brady racked up 310 receiving yards on 23 catches with three TDs.
- Lazarus Williams put together an impressive stat line of six sacks, eight TFL and 39 tackles last year.
- Chris Ojoh collected 116 tackles, nine TFL, and four sacks over his last campaign.
- Bryce Jackson picked off two passes while adding 60 tackles, two TFL, and two passes defended a season ago.
UMass Players to Watch (2022 Stats)
- Last year Brady Olson recorded 791 passing yards (87.9 per game) while going 77-for-153 (50.3%) and throwing for two touchdowns with eight interceptions.
- Ellis Merriweather took 150 attempts for 575 rushing yards a season ago (57.5 per game) and scored three touchdowns.
- Last year Gino Campiotti ran for 369 yards on 102 carries (36.9 yards per game), with three rushing touchdowns.
- George Johnson grabbed 28 passes for 402 yards last season with one touchdown. He was targeted zero times, and averaged 36.5 yards per game.
- Cam Sullivan-Brown chipped in with 373 yards on 27 grabs and two touchdowns. He was targeted zero times, and averaged 41.4 receiving yards last year.
- Isaac Ross racked up 195 yards on 21 catches with one touchdown in 2022.
- Last season Marcus Cushnie piled up four sacks, 11 TFL and 42 tackles.
- Jalen Mackie racked up 93 tackles, 10 TFL, three sacks, and one interception over the course of his 2022 campaign.
- Jordan Mahoney intercepted three passes while adding 36 tackles, two TFL, and five passes defended a season ago.
