We have best bets recommendations as the Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) head into a matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) on Sunday, October 22, 2023 at Arrowhead Stadium on a five-game winning streak.
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Spread: Chiefs (-5.5) to Cover
- The Chiefs are the bet in this matchup. They’re favored by 3.4 more points in the model than DraftKings (8.9 to 5.5).
- Kansas City has posted a 4-2-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs have won twice ATS (2-1) as a 5.5-point favorite or more this year.
- Kansas City is 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 overall over its last three matchups.
- Los Angeles has covered the spread one time this season (1-3-1).
- Los Angeles is 1-1-1 against the spread over its past three games, and has a 3-0 straight-up record in those contests.
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Total: Under 47.5
- The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 2.8 points higher than the model projection.
- Los Angeles has played in three games this year where they and their opponents combined to score more than 47.5 points.
- Chiefs games have hit the over twice this season.
- This season, games featuring the Chargers have gone over the point total twice.
Moneyline Winner: Chiefs (-245)
Kansas City 27 – Los Angeles 18
- Kansas City has won five of the six games it was listed as the moneyline favorite this season (83.3%).
- Los Angeles lost the only game it has played as the underdog this season.
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Chiefs and Chargers Splits
|On the Road||3-0||1-1|
|One Possession Games||3-1||2-3|
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Patrick Mahomes II Passing TDs: Under 2.50 (-210)
- 2023 Season: 1,593 PASS YDS / 265.5 YPG / 68.3% / 11 TD / 5 INT
- In Chiefs’ Last 5 Games: 1,367 PASS YDS / 273.4 YPG / 71.4% / 9 TD / 4 INT
- In Chiefs’ Last 3 Games: 790 PASS YDS / 263.3 YPG / 71.2% / 4 TD / 3 INT
- Mahomes has a passing touchdown in all six games this season, with multiple passing TDs in four of them.
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards: Under 63.50 (-115)
- 2023 Season: 87 CAR / 387 YDS / 64.5 YPG / 3 TD
- In Chiefs’ Last 5 Games: 79 CAR / 364 YDS / 72.8 YPG / 3 TD
- In Chiefs’ Last 3 Games: 79 CAR / 364 YDS / 72.8 YPG / 3 TD
- Pacheco gains 64.5 rushing yards per game this season, which outpaces Sunday’s over/under of 63.5 yards.
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards: Under 75.50 (-115)
- 2023 Season: 36 REC / 346 YDS / 69.2 YPG / 3 TD
- In Chiefs’ Last 5 Games: 36 REC / 346 YDS / 69.2 YPG / 3 TD
- In Chiefs’ Last 3 Games: 25 REC / 251 YDS / 83.7 YPG / 1 TD
- Kelce is averaging 69.2 receiving yards per game, 6.3 fewer than his prop bet over/under for Sunday’s game (75.5).
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