Best bets are available as the New England Patriots (1-5) head into a matchup with the Buffalo Bills (4-2) on Sunday, October 22, 2023 at Gillette Stadium on a three-game losing streak.
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Spread: Bills (-7.5) to Cover
- The DraftKings line for this game has the Bills favored by 7.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (20.9 points). Put your money on the Bills.
- Buffalo has a 3-3-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Bills have won once ATS (1-1) as a 7.5-point favorite or more this year.
- Buffalo is 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 overall during its past three games.
- New England is 1-5-0 against the spread this season.
- New England is winless against the spread (0-3) and 2-1 overall in its past three matchups.
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Total: Over 40
- The model’s predicted total (40.5 points) and the DraftKings set total (40 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
- New England has played in three games this season where they and their opponents combined to score more than 40 points.
- This season, games featuring the Bills have gone over the point total twice.
- Games featuring the Patriots have hit the over just once this season.
Moneyline Winner: Bills (-360)
Buffalo 31 – New England 10
- Buffalo has won 66.7% of the games this season when it was the moneyline favorite (4-2).
- This season, New England has been listed as the underdog in four games and failed to win any of those contests.
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Bills and Patriots Splits
|On the Road||1-1||1-2|
|One Possession Games||1-2||1-3|
Interested in more information about this game? Take a look at the full preview here!
Mac Jones Passing TDs: Over 0.50 (-195)
- 2023 Season: 1,208 PASS YDS / 201.3 YPG / 64.2% / 5 TD / 7 INT
- In Patriots’ Last 5 Games: 892 PASS YDS / 178.4 YPG / 63.9% / 2 TD / 6 INT
- In Patriots’ Last 3 Games: 460 PASS YDS / 153.3 YPG / 63.2% / 0 TD / 5 INT
- Jones has thrown for a touchdown three times this season in six games played, including multiple passing TD once.
Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards: Under 44.50 (-120)
- 2023 Season: 78 CAR / 234 YDS / 39.0 YPG / 2 TD
- In Patriots’ Last 5 Games: 66 CAR / 209 YDS / 41.8 YPG / 2 TD
- In Patriots’ Last 3 Games: 66 CAR / 209 YDS / 41.8 YPG / 2 TD
- Sunday’s rushing yards prop bet for Stevenson is set at 44.5 yards. That’s 5.5 more than his season average of 39.0.
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards: Under 87.50 (-125)
- 2023 Season: 49 REC / 620 YDS / 103.3 YPG / 5 TD
- In Bills’ Last 5 Games: 39 REC / 518 YDS / 103.6 YPG / 4 TD
- In Bills’ Last 3 Games: 24 REC / 341 YDS / 113.7 YPG / 4 TD
- Diggs’ 103.3 receiving yards per game average are 15.8 more than his prop bet total in Sunday’s contest (87.5).
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