The Miami Dolphins (1-0) and the New England Patriots (0-1) play on Sunday, September 17, 2023 at Gillette Stadium in a clash of AFC East foes, and here are best bets recommendations.
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Spread: Dolphins (-2) to Cover
- The Dolphins are the bet in this contest. They’re favored by 4.1 more points in the model than DraftKings (6.1 to 2).
- Miami won seven games against the spread last season, failing to cover or pushing 10 times.
- The Dolphins were favored by 2 points or more 10 times last season, and covered the spread in three of those matchups.
- New England compiled a 7-9-1 ATS record last season.
- The Patriots covered the spread twice last year (2-7 ATS) when playing as at least 2-point underdogs.
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Total: Over 46.5
- The DraftKings point total for this game is more than two possessions lower (11 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.
- Eight times last season, Miami and its opponent combined to score more than 46.5 points.
- New England games had over 46.5 points seven times last season.
- The Dolphins and their opponents combined to hit the over eight out of 17 times last season.
- The Patriots and their opponent combined to go over the point total eight out of 17 times last season.
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Moneyline Winner: Dolphins (-125)
- Prediction:
Miami 32 – New England 26 - Miami is the moneyline favorite for the first time this season.
- New England lost the only game it has played as the underdog this season.
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Dolphins and Patriots Splits
| Dolphins (2022) | Patriots (2022) | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-8 | 8-9 |
| At Home | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| On the Road | 3-6 | 4-5 |
| In Conference | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| In Division | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| One Possession Games | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| Indoor | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Outdoor | 8-8 | 7-8 |
Want more information about this game? Check out the full preview here!
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards: Under 264.5 (-115)
- 2023 Season: 0 PASS YDS / 0 YPG / NaN% / 0 TD / 0 INT
- In Patriots’ Last 5 Games: 0 PASS YDS / 0 YPG / NaN% / 0 TD / 0 INT
- In Patriots’ Last 3 Games: 0 PASS YDS / 0 YPG / NaN% / 0 TD / 0 INT
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Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards: Under 52.5 (-115)
- 2023 Season: 10 CAR / 37 YDS / 37 YPG / 1 TD
- In Dolphins’ Last 5 Games: 10 CAR / 37 YDS / 37 YPG / 1 TD
- In Dolphins’ Last 3 Games: 10 CAR / 37 YDS / 37 YPG / 1 TD
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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards: Under 79.5 (+100)
- 2023 Season: 11 REC / 215 YDS / 215 YPG / 2 TD
- In Dolphins’ Last 5 Games: 11 REC / 215 YDS / 215 YPG / 2 TD
- In Dolphins’ Last 3 Games: 11 REC / 215 YDS / 215 YPG / 2 TD
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