The Miami Marlins (57-49) host the Philadelphia Phillies (56-49) to start a four-game series at LoanDepot park, with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET on Monday. The Marlins are on the back of a series victory over the Tigers, and the Phillies a series loss to the Pirates.
The Marlins are favored (-116) in a projected close game against the Phillies (-104). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The betting insights in the article below reflect odds as of July 31, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Phillies Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -116 | -104 | 8.5 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- This season, the Marlins have won 33 out of the 53 games, or 62.3%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Miami has a record of 30-15 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -116 on the moneyline.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 53.7% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
- Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 50 of its 106 games with a total this season.
- The Marlins are 48-58-0 ATS in their 106 games with a spread this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.5 |
| HR | 5 |
| ERA | 4.25 |
| K/9 | 10.4 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have been chosen as underdogs in 36 games this year and have walked away with the win 16 times (44.4%) in those games.
- Philadelphia has a mark of 13-19 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by -104 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Phillies have a 51% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Philadelphia’s games have gone over the total in 44 of its 105 opportunities.
- The Phillies are 44-61-0 against the spread in their 105 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.7 |
| HR | 6 |
| ERA | 3.58 |
| K/9 | 9.3 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Edward Cabrera
- Cabrera and his team have a record of 6-9-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander last pitched on Tuesday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed four hits in two innings against the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Cabrera has started 15 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 10 times. He averages 4.6 innings per appearance.
- He has made 16 appearances and finished one of them without allowing an earned run.
- Cabrera’s team has been victorious in 83.3% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 5-1.
- Cabrera’s team has won eight of his 15 starts.
- Games started by Cabrera have a 6-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 44 | 49.2 | 71 | 2.90 | 21 | 2 |
| David Robertson | 41 | 45 | 49 | 2.00 | 7 | 16 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 40 | 50.1 | 51 | 3.75 | 13 | 0 |
| Jorge López | 37 | 37 | 28 | 4.86 | 6 | 3 |
| Steven Okert | 37 | 37 | 50 | 3.16 | 10 | 0 |
Phillies Probable Pitcher – Taijuan Walker
- The Phillies will send Walker (11-4) out for his 22nd start of the season. He is 11-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings pitched.
- His most recent appearance was on Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles, when the right-hander tossed 5 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up six hits.
- Walker will try to extend a 10-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.4 frames per outing).
- In three of his 21 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
- The Phillies are 4-3 in Walker’s seven starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Walker’s team has won 15 of his 21 starts.
- Walker has had 21 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in eight of those outings.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 47 | 45 | 65 | 3.20 | 4 | 17 |
| Gregory Soto | 45 | 40.1 | 40 | 4.24 | 16 | 2 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 34 | 28.1 | 30 | 4.76 | 10 | 0 |
| Yunior Marte | 32 | 30 | 28 | 5.10 | 2 | 2 |
| Andrew Vasquez | 29 | 39.2 | 34 | 2.27 | 0 | 0 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins have a 13-19 record this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
- Miami has collected five or more extra-base hits in 19 games this season, and has gone 18-1 in those contests.
- The club is 47-37 in the games this season it has totaled eight or more hits.
- Miami is 39-11 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Marlins have drawn five or more walks in 23 games this season, and are 12-11 in those contests.
Phillies Hitting Trends
- They have won 22 of the 30 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Philadelphia has won 18 of its 24 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have a record of 44-25 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 46 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 39-7.
- They have a 24-11 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-116)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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