The Milwaukee Brewers (57-49) and Washington Nationals (44-62) square off in the first of a three-game series on Monday at Nationals Park, at 7:05 PM ET. The Brewers are coming off a series defeat to the Braves, and the Nationals a series loss to the Mets.
As the favorite, the Brewers (-212 on the moneyline to win) play at the Nationals (+174). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of July 31, 2023 at 7:18 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Brewers vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | -212 | +174 | 8.5 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- This season, the Brewers have won 29 out of the 52 games, or 55.8%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Milwaukee has a record of 2-1 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -212 on the moneyline.
- The Brewers have a 67.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Milwaukee and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 45 of 106 opportunities.
- The Brewers have an ATS record of 52-54-0 in 106 games with a spread this season.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 4.97 |
| K/9 | 10.8 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have come away with 39 wins in the 98 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- Washington has a mark of 15-17 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +174 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 36.5% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Washington’s games have gone over the total in 51 of its 105 opportunities.
- The Nationals are 56-49-0 against the spread in their 105 games that had a posted line this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 4.24 |
| K/9 | 7.9 |
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Brewers Probable Pitcher – Corbin Burnes
- Burnes and his team have a record of 8-13-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Wednesday, when he threw six innings against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up two earned runs while allowing three hits.
- Burnes has pitched five or more innings in 19 straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has finished five appearances without allowing an earned run in 21 chances this season.
- Burnes’ team has a record of 10-7 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- Burnes’ team has a 12-9 record in his starts this season.
- Games started by Burnes have a 12-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoby Milner | 47 | 42.2 | 40 | 2.32 | 10 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 45 | 49.1 | 57 | 2.01 | 20 | 3 |
| Devin Williams | 40 | 40.1 | 59 | 1.56 | 0 | 26 |
| Elvis Peguero | 39 | 42 | 36 | 3.21 | 14 | 1 |
| Peter Strzelecki | 34 | 35.2 | 37 | 4.54 | 14 | 0 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – Jake Irvin
- Irvin makes the start for the Nationals, his 16th of the season. He is 3-5 with a 4.96 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 74 1/3 innings pitched.
- The right-hander’s last time out was on Wednesday against the Colorado Rockies, when he went six innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up six hits.
- Irvin will try to continue a three-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 4.9 innings per outing).
- In one of his appearances this season he has not give up an earned run.
- The Nationals have been the underdog on the moneyline in 14 of Irvin’s starts this season, and they went 5-9 in those games.
- Irvin’s team has a 6-9 record in his 15 starts.
- Irvin has had 15 starts that bookmakers set a total for this season, and eight of those outings hit the over.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | 41 | 44 | 42 | 3.07 | 8 | 14 |
| Mason Thompson | 40 | 46.1 | 40 | 4.27 | 9 | 1 |
| Jordan Weems | 23 | 28.2 | 30 | 3.14 | 2 | 0 |
| Andres Machado | 17 | 20 | 16 | 8.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Joe LaSorsa | 13 | 14 | 11 | 5.79 | 1 | 0 |
Brewers Hitting Trends
- The Brewers have a 35-8 record in games this season when they hit two or more home runs.
- Milwaukee is undefeated in its 10 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The club is 40-15 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
- Milwaukee is 46-10 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Brewers have drawn five or more walks in 37 games this season, and are 27-10 in those contests.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 24 games this season and are 15-9 in those matchups.
- In 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 13-4.
- In 72 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 37-35.
- Washington has won 31 of its 43 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won nine of their 19 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Brewers vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Brewers (-212)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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