The Atlanta Braves (66-36) have a 2-0 series lead, hoping to sweep the Milwaukee Brewers (57-48) on Sunday at Truist Park, at 1:35 PM ET.
The Brewers are an underdog (+157 moneyline odds) when they visit the Braves (-187). The contest has an over/under of 11.
The betting insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of July 30, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Brewers Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -187 | +157 | 11 |
Braves Betting Insights
- This season, the Braves have been favored 89 times and won 58, or 65.2%, of those games.
- Atlanta has entered 36 games this season favored by -187 or more and is 27-9 in those contests.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 65.2% chance of a victory for the Braves.
- So far this season, Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 54 of 102 games with a total.
- The Braves are 52-50-0 against the spread this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.1 |
| HR | 22 |
| ERA | 5.59 |
| K/9 | 8.8 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- The Brewers have been chosen as underdogs in 53 games this year and have walked away with the win 28 times (52.8%) in those games.
- Milwaukee has a mark of 2-5 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +157 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Brewers have an implied victory probability of 38.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Milwaukee and its opponents have gone over in 44 of its 105 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Brewers have posted a record of 52-53-0 against the spread this season.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.0 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 4.30 |
| K/9 | 10.6 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – A.J. Smith-Shawver
- When Smith-Shawver starts, his team is 1-2-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander last pitched on Friday, June 23 against the Cincinnati Reds, throwing 3 1/3 innings and giving up five earned runs.
- Smith-Shawver’s team is 2-1 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Smith-Shawver’s team has won two of his three starts.
- In games Smith-Shawver has started this season, the teams are 2-1-0 at hitting the over.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierce Johnson | 44 | 40.2 | 59 | 5.75 | 5 | 13 |
| Kirby Yates | 37 | 39 | 52 | 3.46 | 6 | 2 |
| Joe Jiménez | 36 | 36.2 | 44 | 2.70 | 9 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 32 | 30.2 | 38 | 3.82 | 0 | 19 |
| Collin McHugh | 30 | 42 | 31 | 3.43 | 7 | 0 |
Brewers Probable Pitcher – Colin Rea
- Rea (5-4) takes the mound first for the Brewers in his 18th start of the season. He has a 4.53 ERA in 91 1/3 innings pitched, with 75 strikeouts.
- In his last appearance on Tuesday, the right-hander threw six innings against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up two earned runs while surrendering five hits.
- Rea is looking for his third straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.1 frames per start.
- He has made two appearances this season in which he did not surrender an earned run.
- The Brewers have a 7-2 record in Rea’s nine starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Rea’s team is 11-6 in his 17 starts.
- Rea’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in seven of 17 games.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoby Milner | 46 | 41.2 | 40 | 2.16 | 10 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 44 | 48.1 | 55 | 1.68 | 20 | 3 |
| Devin Williams | 40 | 40.1 | 59 | 1.56 | 0 | 26 |
| Elvis Peguero | 38 | 41 | 36 | 3.29 | 14 | 1 |
| Bryse Wilson | 34 | 49.2 | 42 | 3.44 | 3 | 3 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have racked up two or more home runs in 55 games this season, and are 41-14 in those outings.
- Atlanta has gone 26-3 in its 29 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club is 50-21 in the games this season it has strung together eight or more hits.
- Atlanta is 52-11 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Braves are 18-11 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Brewers Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 42 games this season and are 35-7 in those matchups.
- Milwaukee is undefeated in 10 games this season with five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 55 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 40-15.
- Milwaukee has won 46 of its 55 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have a 27-9 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Braves vs. Brewers Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-187)
Over/Under Pick: Under (11)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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