Pete Alonso leads the New York Mets (49-54) into a matchup against the Washington Nationals (43-61) after homering twice in a 5-1 victory over the Nationals. It begins at 7:10 PM ET on Saturday.
The Mets are favored (-171 moneyline odds to win) when they square off against the Nationals (+143). The matchup has an over/under of 9.5 total runs.
The betting insights in what follows use the latest odds as of July 29, 2023 at 7:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mets vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -171 | +143 | 9.5 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been favorites in 69 games this season and won 39 (56.5%) of those contests.
- New York is 11-11 this season when entering a game favored by -171 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 63.1%.
- New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 42 of 104 opportunities.
- The Mets have an ATS record of 41-63-0 in 104 games with a spread this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 3.83 |
| K/9 | 8.2 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have come away with 38 wins in the 96 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- Washington has a mark of 23-29 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +143 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 41.2% chance of walking away with the win.
- Washington and its opponents have hit the over in 50 of its 103 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- The Nationals are 55-48-0 against the spread in their 103 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 5.76 |
| K/9 | 8.0 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Carlos Carrasco
- Carrasco’s team is 6-8-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw 2 1/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox, giving up five earned runs while allowing 10 hits.
- In 14 starts this season, Carrasco has lasted five or more innings seven times, with an average of 4.9 innings per appearance.
- He has one appearance with no earned runs allowed in 14 chances this season.
- Carrasco’s team has been victorious in 66.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 4-2.
- In games Carrasco has started, his team is 6-8.
- In games Carrasco has started this season, the teams are 7-5-2 at hitting the over.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 45 | 42.1 | 39 | 3.40 | 11 | 6 |
| Brooks Raley | 44 | 37 | 40 | 2.43 | 19 | 2 |
| Drew Smith | 37 | 34.2 | 39 | 4.15 | 9 | 2 |
| Trevor Gott | 37 | 35.2 | 37 | 4.79 | 7 | 0 |
| Dominic Leone | 29 | 29.2 | 33 | 4.55 | 2 | 0 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – Patrick Corbin
- Corbin makes the start for the Nationals, his 22nd of the season. He is 6-11 with a 5.09 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 120 1/3 innings pitched.
- The left-hander last appeared on Monday against the Colorado Rockies, when he threw 6 1/3 innings, allowing five earned runs while giving up 10 hits.
- Corbin will look to last five or more innings for his 21st straight start. He’s averaging 5.7 innings per outing.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in one of his 21 appearances this season.
- The Nationals have an 8-11 record in Corbin’s 19 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Corbin’s team is 9-12 over his 21 starts.
- Corbin’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 11 of 21 games.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | 40 | 43.1 | 41 | 3.12 | 7 | 14 |
| Mason Thompson | 39 | 46 | 39 | 4.30 | 9 | 1 |
| Jordan Weems | 22 | 27.1 | 27 | 3.29 | 2 | 0 |
| Andres Machado | 16 | 19 | 15 | 7.58 | 1 | 0 |
| Joe LaSorsa | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
Mets Hitting Trends
- The Mets have a 19-15 record in games this season when they belt two or more homers.
- New York has gone 12-4 in its 16 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The team is 37-20 in the games this season it has put up at least eight hits.
- New York has a 37-16 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Mets have drawn at least five walks in 24 games this season, and are 14-10 in those contests.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 24 games this season and are 15-9 in those matchups.
- Washington has won 13 of its 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 36 of the 71 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Washington has won 30 of its 42 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won nine of their 19 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Mets vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (-171)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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