Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 28, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 27, 2023

The Seattle Mariners (52-50) match up against the Arizona Diamondbacks (55-48) after Dylan Moore homered twice in an 8-7 victory over the Twins. The game starts at 9:40 PM ET on Friday.

The Mariners are a favorite (-130) against the Diamondbacks (+110). The game’s total is set at 9.

The betting insights in what follows use the latest odds as of July 28, 2023 at 9:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Mariners vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Mariners -130 +110 9

Mariners Betting Insights

  • The Mariners have been favorites in 67 games this season and won 36 (53.7%) of those contests.
  • Seattle has a record of 27-24, a 52.9% win rate, when favored by -130 or more by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Mariners have a 56.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • So far this season, Seattle and its opponents have hit the over in 51 of 102 games with a total.
  • In 102 games with a spread this season, the Mariners are 47-55-0 ATS.

Mariners Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 19
ERA 5.20
K/9 12

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have come away with 25 wins in the 53 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Arizona has a mark of 17-19 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +110 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 47.6% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Arizona and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 47 of its 103 opportunities.
  • The Diamondbacks have posted a record of 57-46-0 against the spread this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 5.8
HR 14
ERA 7.52
K/9 6.5

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Mariners Probable Pitcher – Logan Gilbert

  • Gilbert’s team is 9-11-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed five innings while giving up five earned runs on eight hits in a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • Gilbert will look to finish five or more innings for the eighth start in a row.
  • He has made 20 appearances and finished one of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Gilbert’s team has a record of 6-9 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Gilbert’s team has won 11 of his 20 starts this season.
  • Games started by Gilbert have a 10-9-1 record at hitting the over this season.

Mariners Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Matt Brash 48 41.2 74 3.67 13 1
Paul Sewald 44 42 59 3 0 20
Justin Topa 43 40 37 2.7 15 2
Gabe Speier 42 33.2 35 4.01 10 0
Tayler Saucedo 30 30.1 30 2.37 0 0

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Tommy Henry

  • Henry gets the start for the Diamondbacks, his 16th of the season. He is 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 83 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The left-hander’s last time out was on Friday, July 21 against the Cincinnati Reds, when he went 4 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing four hits.
  • Henry has put up nine starts this campaign that he pitched five or more innings.
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in three of his 16 outings this season.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 4-4 record in Henry’s eight starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • In Henry’s 15 starts, his team is 10-5.
  • Henry has had 15 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in seven of those matchups.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Scott McGough 43 50.1 61 4.47 13 7
Miguel Castro 43 41.2 34 4.1 9 7
Kyle Nelson 42 39 50 3 7 0
Andrew Chafin 39 34 48 4.24 11 8
Kevin Ginkel 35 39 34 2.31 1 3

Mariners Hitting Trends

  • The Mariners have a 26-10 record in games this season when they hit two or more homers.
  • Seattle has gone 15-1 in its 16 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club has put up eight or more hits in 61 games this season, and is 40-21 in those contests.
  • Seattle is 46-7 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Mariners are 25-12 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 36 games this season and are 25-11 in those matchups.
  • Arizona has won 18 of its 25 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have a record of 52-25 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Arizona has a 51-16 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 19-19 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Diamondbacks (+110)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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