The San Diego Padres (49-54) and Texas Rangers (60-43) clash in the first of a three-game series on Friday at PETCO Park, at 9:40 PM ET. The Padres are coming off a series defeat to the Pirates, and the Rangers a series loss to the Astros.
The Padres are the home favorite (-166) versus the Rangers (+140). The matchup has an over/under of 8.5 total runs.
The betting facts in this article are based off odds valid as of July 28, 2023 at 9:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Padres vs Rangers Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | -166 | +140 | 8.5 |
Padres Betting Insights
- The Padres have entered the game as favorites 77 times this season and won 40, or 51.9%, of those games.
- San Diego has a record of 17-17 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -166 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Padres, based on the moneyline, is 62.4%.
- So far this season, San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 41 of 103 games with a total.
- The Padres have an ATS record of 49-54-0 in 103 games with a spread this season.
Padres Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.8 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 3.20 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
Rangers Betting Insights
- The Rangers have won in 20, or 57.1%, of the 35 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- This year, Texas has won four of nine games when listed as at least +140 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Rangers have an implied victory probability of 41.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Texas and its opponents have hit the over in 54 of its 103 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- In 103 games with a line this season, the Rangers have a mark of 61-42-0 against the spread.
Rangers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 6 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 6.24 |
| K/9 | 7.9 |
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Padres Probable Pitcher – Joe Musgrove
- Musgrove and his team have a record of 9-7-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander gave up three earned runs and allowed seven hits in six innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers on Sunday.
- Musgrove has pitched five or more innings in 14 straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has made 16 appearances and finished three of them without allowing an earned run.
- When Musgrove starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 10-4.
- In games Musgrove has started, his team is 10-6.
- In Musgrove’s 16 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over six times.
Padres Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | 43 | 42.1 | 26 | 4.04 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Hader | 40 | 38 | 58 | 0.95 | 0 | 24 |
| Steven Wilson | 39 | 42 | 44 | 2.57 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Martínez | 38 | 72.2 | 65 | 3.84 | 13 | 1 |
| Luís Garcia | 37 | 35.2 | 36 | 5.3 | 9 | 0 |
Rangers Probable Pitcher – Dane Dunning
- Dunning (8-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 102 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Rangers, his 15th of the season.
- His most recent time out was on Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, when the righty threw three innings, surrendering five earned runs while allowing seven hits.
- Dunning has put up 13 starts this campaign where he pitched five or more innings.
- He has had seven appearances this season that he kept his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Rangers are 3-2 in Dunning’s five starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Dunning’s team is 8-6 in his 14 starts.
- Dunning’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in six of 14 games.
Rangers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 37 | 37.1 | 67 | 2.65 | 8 | 3 |
| Will Smith | 36 | 37 | 38 | 2.68 | 5 | 17 |
| Brock Burke | 33 | 41 | 31 | 2.63 | 9 | 0 |
| José Leclerc | 31 | 32.1 | 35 | 2.78 | 2 | 1 |
| Yerry Rodriguez | 10 | 12.2 | 14 | 5.68 | 0 | 0 |
Padres Hitting Trends
- The Padres are 25-20 this season in games when they hit at least two home runs.
- San Diego has gone 20-8 in its 28 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The club has racked up at least eight hits 55 times this season, and has a 38-17 record in those games.
- San Diego is 41-7 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Padres are 26-19 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Rangers Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 49 games this season and are 35-14 in those matchups.
- Texas has gone 23-12 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 59-28 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Texas has won 54 of its 72 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have a 24-14 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Padres vs. Rangers Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Padres (-166)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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