The Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (45-57) to start a three-game series at PNC Park, with first pitch at 7:05 PM ET on Friday. The Phillies are on the back of a series victory over the Orioles, and the Pirates a series win over the Padres.
The Phillies are the road favorite (-167) versus the Pirates (+141). The total for the game is 8.5 total runs.
The betting trends in what follows reference odds valid as of July 28, 2023 at 7:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Phillies vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -167 | +141 | 8.5 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 64 times this season and won 38, or 59.4%, of those games.
- Philadelphia has entered 20 games this season favored by -167 or more and is 13-7 in those contests.
- The Phillies have a 62.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Philadelphia’s games have gone over the total in 42 of its 102 chances.
- The Phillies are 44-58-0 ATS in their 102 games with a spread this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.9 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 3.42 |
| K/9 | 8.2 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have been underdogs in 81 games this season and have come away with the win 33 times (40.7%) in those contests.
- This season, Pittsburgh has been victorious 10 times in 24 chances when named as an underdog of at least +141 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 41.5% chance of walking away with the win.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 52 of its 102 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Pirates are 46-56-0 against the spread in their 102 games that had a posted line this season.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.7 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 6.03 |
| K/9 | 8.6 |
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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Zack Wheeler
- Wheeler’s team is 8-12-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up one earned run on five hits in a matchup with the Cleveland Guardians.
- Wheeler will look to finish five or more innings for the ninth start in a row.
- He has four appearances with no earned runs allowed in 20 chances this season.
- Wheeler’s team is 11-7 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Wheeler’s team is 13-7 when he starts this season.
- Out of Wheeler’s 20 starts with a total this season, eight have hit the over.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 45 | 43 | 64 | 3.35 | 4 | 16 |
| Gregory Soto | 43 | 38.2 | 38 | 4.42 | 14 | 2 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 33 | 28 | 30 | 4.18 | 10 | 0 |
| Yunior Marte | 30 | 28.2 | 26 | 5.02 | 2 | 2 |
| Andrew Vasquez | 28 | 39.2 | 34 | 2.04 | 0 | 0 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller
- Keller looks for his 10th win when he makes the start for the Pirates, his 22nd of the season. He is 9-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 128 2/3 innings pitched.
- His last appearance was on Sunday against the Los Angeles Angels, when the right-hander went five innings, surrendering six earned runs while giving up nine hits.
- Keller will try to go five or more innings for his 21st straight start. He’s averaging 6.1 frames per outing.
- He has had three appearances this season that he kept his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Pirates have a 7-6 record in Keller’s 13 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Keller’s team is 11-10 in his 21 starts.
- Keller has had 21 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in 11 of those outings.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dauri Moreta | 44 | 45.1 | 62 | 3.57 | 4 | 1 |
| David Bednar | 38 | 40 | 49 | 1.35 | 0 | 20 |
| Colin Holderman | 35 | 34 | 34 | 3.71 | 15 | 1 |
| Jose Hernandez | 27 | 29.2 | 33 | 3.34 | 4 | 0 |
| Duane Underwood Jr. | 19 | 24.1 | 14 | 5.18 | 3 | 2 |
Phillies Hitting Trends
- The Phillies have racked up at least two long balls in 30 games this season, and are 22-8 in those outings.
- Philadelphia has collected five or more extra-base hits in 24 games this season, and has gone 18-6 in those outings.
- The team has racked up at least eight hits in 67 games this season, and is 44-23 in those contests.
- Philadelphia is 39-6 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Phillies are 23-9 over the 32 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They have won 20 of the 27 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Pittsburgh has won 17 of its 20 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 45 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 31-14.
- In 35 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 28-7.
- They have a 14-15 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-167)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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