The Tampa Bay Rays (62-43) and Houston Astros (58-45) square off in the first of a three-game series on Friday at Minute Maid Park, at 8:10 PM ET. The Rays are coming off a series split with the Marlins, and the Astros a series win over the Rangers.
An expected tight matchup features the Rays (-113 moneyline odds to win) against the Astros (-106). The matchup has an over/under of 8.5 total runs.
The betting insights in this article reflect odds as of July 28, 2023 at 7:20 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Rays vs Astros Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | -113 | -106 | 8.5 |
Rays Betting Insights
- This season, the Rays have won 56 out of the 88 games, or 63.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
- This season Tampa Bay has won 56 of its 86 games, or 65.1%, when favored by at least -113 on the moneyline.
- The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 53.1% chance of a victory for the Rays.
- Tampa Bay and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 54 of 105 opportunities.
- The Rays are 57-48-0 against the spread in their 105 chances this season.
Rays Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 2-8 |
| Runs Per Game | 2.9 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 4.24 |
| K/9 | 10.6 |
Astros Betting Insights
- The Astros have won in 19, or 59.4%, of the 32 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Houston has a win-loss record of 16-13 when favored by -106 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Astros have a 51.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Contests with Houston has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 50 of 103 chances this season.
- The Astros are 51-52-0 against the spread in their 103 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.8 |
| HR | 19 |
| ERA | 4.60 |
| K/9 | 7.8 |
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Rays Probable Pitcher – Shane McClanahan
- When McClanahan starts, his team is 12-7-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up five earned runs and allowed five hits in four innings against the Baltimore Orioles.
- McClanahan has started 19 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 15 times. He averages 5.6 innings per appearance.
- He has finished three appearances without allowing an earned run in 19 chances this season.
- McClanahan’s team has won 72.2% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (13-5).
- McClanahan’s team has won 14 of his 19 starts.
- Out of McClanahan’s 19 starts with a total this season, 12 have hit the over.
Rays Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Adam | 42 | 42 | 52 | 2.57 | 10 | 10 |
| Jake Diekman | 40 | 32.1 | 39 | 4.18 | 7 | 0 |
| Colin Poche | 40 | 37 | 31 | 2.19 | 13 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | 37 | 44.2 | 36 | 3.02 | 9 | 2 |
| Robert Stephenson | 36 | 31.1 | 42 | 4.02 | 8 | 0 |
Astros Probable Pitcher – Cristian Javier
- Javier (7-2 with a 4.32 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 102 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Astros, his 20th of the season.
- In his most recent time out on Sunday, the right-hander threw 5 2/3 innings against the Oakland Athletics, allowing two earned runs while surrendering one hit.
- Javier is looking for his third straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.4 innings per start.
- He has had one outing this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Astros won each of Javier’s six starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
- Over Javier’s 19 starts, his team is 14-5.
- Javier has started 19 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 14 of them.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 47 | 48.1 | 73 | 2.61 | 17 | 3 |
| Phil Maton | 47 | 48 | 52 | 3.00 | 8 | 1 |
| Héctor Neris | 44 | 43.2 | 50 | 1.44 | 21 | 2 |
| Ryan Pressly | 44 | 46.1 | 50 | 3.11 | 0 | 24 |
| Rafael Montero | 40 | 43 | 44 | 6.07 | 6 | 1 |
Rays Hitting Trends
- The Rays are 35-12 this season in games when they crush two or more long balls.
- Tampa Bay has gone 25-2 in its 27 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The team is 47-25 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
- Tampa Bay is 45-18 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Rays are 19-6 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Astros Hitting Trends
- They are 24-9 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Houston has won 15 of its 20 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 69 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 55-14.
- Houston has a 49-9 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 23-7 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Rays vs. Astros Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Astros (-106)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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