A pair of the league’s most consistent hitters square off when the Tampa Bay Rays (62-42) and Miami Marlins (54-48) meet at 12:10 PM ET on Wednesday, at Tropicana Field. Yandy Diaz has a .318 batting average (fifth in league) for the Rays, while Luis Arraez ranks first at .375.
The Marlins are an underdog away (+140) against the Rays (-168). The matchup has an over/under of 7.5 total runs.
The betting trends in what follows are based off odds valid as of July 26, 2023 at 11:31 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Rays vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | -168 | +140 | 7.5 |
Rays Betting Insights
- The Rays have entered the game as favorites 87 times this season and won 56, or 64.4%, of those games.
- Tampa Bay has a record of 33-12 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -168 on the moneyline.
- The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 62.7% chance of a victory for the Rays.
- So far this season, Tampa Bay and its opponents have hit the over in 53 of 104 games with a total.
- The Rays are 57-47-0 against the spread this season.
Rays Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.2 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 3.72 |
| K/9 | 10.1 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have come away with 23 wins in the 52 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- Miami has a win-loss record of 6-13 when favored by +140 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
- Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 41.7% chance of pulling out a win.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 47 of its 102 opportunities.
- The Marlins are 46-56-0 against the spread in their 102 games that had a posted line this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 1-9 |
| Runs Per Game | 2.9 |
| HR | 4 |
| ERA | 4.66 |
| K/9 | 10.2 |
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Rays Probable Pitcher – Zach Eflin
- Eflin and his team are 9-10-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Friday, when he tossed seven innings without allowing a run on two hits in a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.
- Eflin has made 17 starts of five or more innings in 19 chances this season, and averages 5.9 frames when he pitches.
- He has finished three appearances without allowing an earned run in 19 chances this season.
- When Eflin starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 14-4.
- Eflin’s team has won 14 of his 19 starts this season.
- Games started by Eflin have an 8-11-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Rays Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Adam | 42 | 42 | 52 | 2.57 | 10 | 10 |
| Jake Diekman | 40 | 32.1 | 39 | 4.18 | 7 | 0 |
| Colin Poche | 40 | 37 | 31 | 2.19 | 13 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | 36 | 43.2 | 35 | 3.09 | 9 | 2 |
| Robert Stephenson | 35 | 30.1 | 41 | 4.15 | 8 | 0 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara
- The Marlins are sending Alcantara (3-9) out for his 21st start of the season. He is 3-9 with a 4.77 ERA and 106 strikeouts over 126 1/3 innings pitched.
- In his last time out on Wednesday, the righty went six innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up four earned runs while surrendering eight hits.
- Alcantara is aiming for his 18th straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.3 frames per start.
- In one of his appearances this season he did not surrender an earned run.
- The Marlins have been the underdog on the moneyline in nine of Alcantara’s starts this season, and they went 2-7 in those games.
- In Alcantara’s 20 starts, his team is 7-13.
- Alcantara has started 20 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in 13 of them.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 42 | 48 | 71 | 2.81 | 19 | 2 |
| Dylan Floro | 40 | 39.2 | 41 | 4.54 | 9 | 7 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 39 | 49.2 | 50 | 3.62 | 12 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | 36 | 36 | 49 | 3.25 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Puk | 33 | 32.1 | 41 | 4.73 | 0 | 15 |
Rays Hitting Trends
- The Rays have put up at least two round-trippers in 47 games this season, and are 35-12 in those contests.
- Tampa Bay is 25-2 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The team has notched eight or more hits in 72 games this season, and is 47-25 in those contests.
- Tampa Bay is 45-18 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Rays have gone 19-6 over the 25 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They have won 12 of the 31 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- In 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 16-1.
- In 81 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 44-37.
- Miami has a 36-11 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 23 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 12-11
Rays vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Rays (-168)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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