Triston Casas leads the Boston Red Sox (52-47) into a contest versus the New York Mets (46-52) after his two-homer showing in an 8-6 victory over the Mets. It begins at 7:10 PM ET on Sunday.
The favored Red Sox (-140 on the moneyline) host the Mets (+117). The game’s over/under is 11.
The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of July 23, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Red Sox vs Mets Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -140 | +117 | 11 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- This season, the Red Sox have been favored 45 times and won 25, or 55.6%, of those games.
- Boston is 10-9 this season when entering a game favored by -140 or more on the moneyline.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 58.3% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
- Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 53 of 99 opportunities.
- The Red Sox have an ATS record of 51-48-0 in 99 games with a spread this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.1 |
| HR | 20 |
| ERA | 4.24 |
| K/9 | 10.3 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been chosen as underdogs in 33 games this year and have walked away with the win 10 times (30.3%) in those games.
- New York has a mark of 2-8 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +117 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Mets have a 46.1% chance of walking away with the win.
- New York’s games have gone over the total in 41 of its 99 opportunities.
- The Mets are 39-60-0 against the spread in their 99 games that had a posted line this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.5 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 4.40 |
| K/9 | 9.5 |
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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Brennan Bernardino
- Bernardino and his team have a record of 2-3-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The left-hander last pitched on Friday against the New York Mets, throwing one inning of relief while giving up one earned run and allowing two hits.
- In five starts this season, Bernardino has yet to get through five or more innings.
- He has finished 20 appearances without allowing an earned run in 28 chances this season.
- Bernardino’s team has been victorious in 66.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 2-1.
- Bernardino’s team has a 2-3 record in his starts this season.
- In Bernardino’s five starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Winckowski | 33 | 54.2 | 45 | 2.96 | 10 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | 33 | 32.1 | 38 | 3.06 | 0 | 21 |
| Chris Martin | 32 | 30.2 | 27 | 1.47 | 14 | 1 |
| Brennan Bernardino | 23 | 32.2 | 35 | 2.48 | 1 | 0 |
| Richard Bleier | 19 | 23 | 14 | 5.09 | 2 | 0 |
Mets Probable Pitcher – Carlos Carrasco
- The Mets are sending Carrasco (3-3) to the mound to make his 14th start of the season. He is 3-3 with a 5.35 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings pitched.
- The right-hander’s last appearance came on Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox, when he threw 4 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while allowing six hits.
- Carrasco has seven starts this season where he pitched five or more innings.
- He has had one outing this season that he kept his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Mets have been the underdog on the moneyline in seven of Carrasco’s starts this season, and they went 2-5 in those matchups.
- In Carrasco’s 13 starts, his team is 6-7.
- Carrasco has started 13 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in seven of them.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 42 | 39.1 | 38 | 3.66 | 11 | 6 |
| Brooks Raley | 41 | 34.2 | 38 | 2.08 | 19 | 1 |
| David Robertson | 39 | 43.1 | 48 | 2.08 | 6 | 15 |
| Drew Smith | 35 | 32 | 36 | 4.50 | 9 | 2 |
| Trevor Gott | 35 | 33.2 | 36 | 5.08 | 7 | 0 |
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- The Red Sox have hit two or more homers in 32 games this season, and are 23-9 in those contests.
- Boston has gone 24-9 in its 33 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has strung together at least eight hits 71 times this season, and has a 43-28 record in those games.
- Boston is 43-10 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Red Sox have gone 12-10 in the 22 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Mets Hitting Trends
- They have won 17 of the 32 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- New York has won 11 of its 15 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 35 of the 55 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- New York has a 35-16 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 13-10 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-140)
Over/Under Pick: Under (11)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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