Bryson Stott leads the Philadelphia Phillies (52-46) into a matchup with Josh Naylor and the Cleveland Guardians (49-49) at Progressive Field, on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET. Stott is at .305, the eighth-best average in the league, and Naylor is sixth at .312.
The Phillies are favored (-132 on the moneyline) when they square off against the Guardians (+112). The over/under for the game is set at 9 total runs.
The insights in what follows reflect odds as of July 23, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Phillies vs Guardians Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -132 | +112 | 9 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- This season, the Phillies have been favored 60 times and won 35, or 58.3%, of those games.
- Philadelphia has a record of 27-14 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -132 on the moneyline.
- The Phillies have a 56.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Philadelphia and its opponents have hit the over in 40 of its 98 games with a total this season.
- In 98 games with a spread this season, the Phillies are 42-56-0 ATS.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.0 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 4.30 |
| K/9 | 7.5 |
Guardians Betting Insights
- The Guardians have been underdogs in 45 games this season and have come away with the win 20 times (44.4%) in those contests.
- Cleveland has a win-loss record of 9-18 when favored by +112 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
- The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 47.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Cleveland and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 43 of its 98 opportunities.
- The Guardians are 50-48-0 against the spread in their 98 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Guardians Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 4.50 |
| K/9 | 9.3 |
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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Aaron Nola
- Nola’s team is 7-13-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander gave up two earned runs in 7 1/3 innings pitched on Tuesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Nola will look to finish five or more innings for the 20th start in a row.
- He has two appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 20 chances this season.
- When Nola starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 8-4.
- Nola’s team has won 10 of his 20 starts this season.
- In games Nola has started this season, the teams are 10-8-2 at hitting the over.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 42 | 40 | 60 | 3.15 | 3 | 16 |
| Gregory Soto | 41 | 36.2 | 37 | 4.66 | 13 | 1 |
| Yunior Marte | 28 | 26 | 25 | 5.54 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Vasquez | 28 | 39.2 | 34 | 2.04 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | 23 | 60 | 76 | 3.60 | 2 | 1 |
Guardians Probable Pitcher – Xzavion Curry
- Curry (3-0) starts for the Guardians, his second of the season.
- In his last appearance on Monday, the right-hander tossed three scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates while surrendering one hit.
- He will attempt for his fifth straight outing without allowing an earned run.
- The Guardians have not been a moneyline underdog when Curry starts this season.
- His team has won the only matchup he’s made an appearance in this season.
- Curry’s lone start with a total this season went over.
Guardians Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 45 | 45.2 | 42 | 3.15 | 0 | 27 |
| Trevor Stephan | 43 | 42 | 44 | 3.21 | 13 | 2 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 42 | 40.2 | 35 | 2.66 | 9 | 0 |
| Eli Morgan | 37 | 40.2 | 42 | 2.43 | 7 | 1 |
| Nick Sandlin | 34 | 37.2 | 40 | 3.35 | 5 | 0 |
Phillies Hitting Trends
- The Phillies have a 22-8 record in games this season when they hit at least two homers.
- Philadelphia has had five or more extra-base hits in 24 games this season, and has gone 18-6 in those outings.
- The team has strung together eight or more hits 64 times this season, and has a 41-23 record in those games.
- Philadelphia is 37-6 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Phillies are 22-9 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Guardians Hitting Trends
- They have won 13 of the 17 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Cleveland has gone 14-5 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 34-27 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Cleveland has a 29-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 13-9 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Guardians (+112)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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