The Boston Red Sox (51-47) bring a three-game losing run into a home matchup versus the New York Mets (46-51), at 7:10 PM ET on Saturday.
The Mets are an underdog (+104 on the moneyline) when they visit the Red Sox (-125). The total for the game is set at 9.5 total runs.
The betting trends in the following article are based off odds valid as of July 22, 2023 at 7:17 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Red Sox vs Mets Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -125 | +104 | 9.5 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- This season, the Red Sox have won 24 out of the 44 games, or 54.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Boston has a record of 16-12, a 57.1% win rate, when favored by -125 or more by sportsbooks this season.
- The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 55.6%.
- Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 52 of 98 opportunities.
- The Red Sox have an ATS record of 50-48-0 in 98 games with a spread this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.0 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 3.93 |
| K/9 | 10.6 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been chosen as underdogs in 32 games this year and have walked away with the win 10 times (31.2%) in those games.
- New York has a win-loss record of 2-16 when favored by +104 or worse by bookmakers this year.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Mets have a 49% chance of walking away with the win.
- New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 40 of its 98 opportunities.
- The Mets are 39-59-0 against the spread in their 98 games that had a posted line this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.6 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 3.80 |
| K/9 | 8.8 |
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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – James Paxton
- When Paxton starts, his team is 5-7-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander’s last start was on Saturday, July 15, when he tossed three innings while giving up six earned runs on three hits in a matchup with the Chicago Cubs.
- In 11 starts this season, Paxton has lasted five or more innings eight times, with an average of 5.4 innings per appearance.
- In 11 appearances this season, he has finished two without allowing an earned run.
- Paxton’s team has been victorious in 25% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 2-6.
- In games Paxton has started, his team is 6-6.
- Games Paxton has started this season hit the over seven times in 12 chances.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Martin | 32 | 30.2 | 27 | 1.47 | 14 | 1 |
| Josh Winckowski | 32 | 53.2 | 44 | 3.02 | 9 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | 32 | 32 | 38 | 3.09 | 0 | 20 |
| Brennan Bernardino | 23 | 32.2 | 35 | 2.48 | 1 | 0 |
| Richard Bleier | 19 | 23 | 14 | 5.09 | 2 | 0 |
Mets Probable Pitcher – Max Scherzer
- Scherzer (8-3 with a 3.99 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 94 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Mets, his 18th of the season.
- The righty last appeared on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, when he tossed seven scoreless innings while giving up one hit.
- Scherzer will try to prolong a seven-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.5 innings per outing).
- He has had four appearances this season in which he did not give up an earned run.
- The Mets have been the underdog on the moneyline in three of Scherzer’s starts this season, and they went 1-2 in those matchups.
- Scherzer’s team has compiled an 11-6 record over his 17 starts.
- Scherzer has had 17 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in nine of those matchups.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 42 | 39.1 | 38 | 3.66 | 11 | 6 |
| Brooks Raley | 41 | 34.2 | 38 | 2.08 | 19 | 1 |
| David Robertson | 39 | 43.1 | 48 | 2.08 | 6 | 15 |
| Trevor Gott | 34 | 33.1 | 35 | 4.32 | 7 | 0 |
| Drew Smith | 34 | 31 | 36 | 4.65 | 9 | 2 |
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- The Red Sox are 22-9 this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
- Boston has gone 23-9 in its 32 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The club has notched at least eight hits in 70 games this season, and is 42-28 in those contests.
- Boston is 42-10 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Red Sox have gone 12-10 in the 22 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Mets Hitting Trends
- They have won 17 of the 32 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- New York has gone 11-4 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have won 35 of the 54 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 50 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 35-15.
- They have won 13 of their 23 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-125)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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