Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 21, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 21, 2023

The St. Louis Cardinals (44-53) aim to add to their six-game winning streak when they take on the Chicago Cubs (45-51) on Friday at 2:20 PM ET, at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are favored (-127 on the moneyline) when they take on the Cardinals (+107). The over/under for the game is 8 total runs.

The betting insights in the article below use the latest odds as of July 21, 2023 at 1:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Cubs vs Cardinals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Cubs -127 +107 8

Cubs Betting Insights

  • The Cubs have won 26, or 54.2%, of the 48 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • This season Chicago has won 19 of its 30 games, or 63.3%, when favored by at least -127 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Cubs, based on the moneyline, is 55.9%.
  • So far this season, Chicago and its opponents have hit the over in 50 of 96 games with a total.
  • The Cubs are 46-50-0 against the spread this season.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 6.4
HR 13
ERA 5.26
K/9 7.7

Cardinals Betting Insights

  • The Cardinals have come away with 19 wins in the 42 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • St. Louis has a mark of 10-12 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +107 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Cardinals have a 48.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • St. Louis and its opponents have gone over in 49 of its 96 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Cardinals are 46-50-0 against the spread in their 96 games that had a posted line this season.

Cardinals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 6.0
HR 16
ERA 3.33
K/9 8.7

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Justin Steele

  • When Steele starts, his team is 9-8-0 against the spread this season.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw six innings against the Boston Red Sox, giving up six earned runs while allowing 10 hits.
  • Steele will look to finish five or more innings for the sixth start in a row.
  • He has made 17 appearances and finished five of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Steele’s team has been victorious in 70% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 7-3.
  • Steele’s team has won 10 of his 17 starts.
  • Games started by Steele have an 8-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Julian Merryweather 40 41 54 3.95 5 0
Michael Fulmer 39 42.1 45 4.46 7 1
Mark Leiter Jr. 37 39.1 53 3.43 14 3
Adbert Alzolay 33 41 46 2.63 7 7
Michael Rucker 30 38 38 5.21 0 0

Cardinals Probable Pitcher – Jack Flaherty

  • Flaherty (7-5 with a 4.29 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 98 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Cardinals, his 19th of the season.
  • The righty last appeared on Sunday against the Washington Nationals, when he went six innings, allowing three earned runs while giving up three hits.
  • Flaherty will try to extend a five-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.5 frames per appearance).
  • He has made five appearances this season in which he did not allow an earned run.
  • The Cardinals are 6-2 in Flaherty’s eight starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Flaherty’s team has compiled a 12-6 record in his 18 starts.
  • Flaherty has started 18 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in 12 of them.

Cardinals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Jordan Hicks 38 40.2 58 3.76 6 8
Chris Stratton 37 49.2 53 4.17 3 1
Giovanny Gallegos 37 40 39 4.05 13 8
Andre Pallante 31 35.1 30 4.84 9 0
Génesis Cabrera 30 32 38 5.06 5 0

Cubs Hitting Trends

  • The Cubs have put up two or more homers in 37 games this season, and are 21-16 in those contests.
  • Chicago has collected at least five extra-base hits in 17 games this season, and has gone 15-2 in those outings.
  • The team has put up at least eight hits in 63 games this season, and is 43-20 in those contests.
  • Chicago is 35-13 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Cubs have drawn five or more walks in 33 games this season, and are 18-15 in those contests.

Cardinals Hitting Trends

  • They have won 32 of the 48 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • St. Louis has won 26 of its 30 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • In 67 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 43-24.
  • St. Louis has a 39-11 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 13-16 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-127)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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