The Cincinnati Reds (52-46) and Arizona Diamondbacks (54-43) clash on Friday at 7:10 PM ET, opening a three-game series at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds are a tight favorite (-114 on the moneyline) when they play the Diamondbacks (-105). The matchup has an over/under set at 11 total runs.
The insights in the following article reference odds valid as of July 21, 2023 at 7:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | -114 | -105 | 11 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been favorites in 27 games this season and won 18 (66.7%) of those contests.
- Cincinnati is 14-8 this season when entering a game favored by -114 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Reds, based on the moneyline, is 53.3%.
- Cincinnati and its opponents have hit the over in 54 of its 98 games with a total this season.
- The Reds have an ATS record of 60-38-0 in 98 games with a spread this season.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.4 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 3.74 |
| K/9 | 8.3 |
Diamondbacks Betting Insights
- The Diamondbacks have won in 25, or 48.1%, of the 52 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Arizona has a mark of 24-25 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by -105 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 51.2% chance of walking away with the win.
- Arizona and its opponents have gone over in 44 of its 97 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Diamondbacks are 56-41-0 against the spread in their 97 games that had a posted line this season.
Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 6.03 |
| K/9 | 7.5 |
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Reds Probable Pitcher – Ben Lively
- Lively’s team is 6-4-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw four innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, giving up one earned run while allowing three hits.
- Lively has made seven starts of five or more innings in 10 chances this season, and averages 5.0 frames when he pitches.
- In 11 appearances this season, he has finished two without allowing an earned run.
- Lively’s team is 2-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Lively’s team has a 5-5 record in his starts this season.
- In Lively’s 10 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over five times.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | 43 | 47.2 | 41 | 3.21 | 11 | 1 |
| Buck Farmer | 43 | 47.1 | 41 | 3.99 | 9 | 2 |
| Alex Young | 42 | 38 | 38 | 2.37 | 9 | 1 |
| Alexis Diaz | 42 | 42.2 | 65 | 1.90 | 1 | 27 |
| Lucas Sims | 38 | 38.1 | 48 | 3.29 | 14 | 1 |
Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Tommy Henry
- Henry (5-2 with a 3.89 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Diamondbacks, his 15th of the season.
- The left-hander’s most recent appearance came on Sunday against the Toronto Blue Jays, when he threw 4 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing seven hits.
- Henry is looking to collect his 10th start of five or more innings this season in this outing.
- In three of his 15 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
- The Diamondbacks are 4-3 in Henry’s seven starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
- Henry’s team has a 10-4 record in his starts this season.
- Henry’s starts went over the run total six times in 14 games with a set total this season.
Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Castro | 41 | 40 | 32 | 3.83 | 9 | 7 |
| Scott McGough | 40 | 47.2 | 59 | 3.78 | 12 | 7 |
| Kyle Nelson | 39 | 36.1 | 48 | 2.97 | 7 | 0 |
| José Ruiz | 34 | 41.2 | 36 | 5.62 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | 33 | 37.2 | 34 | 2.39 | 1 | 2 |
Reds Hitting Trends
- The Reds are 25-5 this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
- Cincinnati has gone 23-6 in its 29 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The team is 48-20 in the games this season it has racked up at least eight hits.
- Cincinnati is 52-10 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Reds are 16-20 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Diamondbacks Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 34 games this season and are 25-9 in those matchups.
- Arizona has gone 18-5 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 73 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 51-22.
- Arizona has a 51-13 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 19-17 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Reds (-114)
Over/Under Pick: Under (11)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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