The Atlanta Braves (62-33) match up against the Milwaukee Brewers (54-43) after Matt Olson homered twice in a 7-5 victory over the Diamondbacks. The game starts at 8:10 PM ET on Friday.
The Brewers (+101 underdog moneyline odds) host the Braves (-121). The over/under in the game is set at 9.5 total runs.
The betting insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of July 21, 2023 at 7:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Brewers Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -121 | +101 | 9.5 |
Braves Betting Insights
- The Braves have entered the game as favorites 82 times this season and won 54, or 65.9%, of those games.
- This season Atlanta has won 53 of its 76 games, or 69.7%, when favored by at least -121 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 54.8%.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 51 of its 95 chances.
- The Braves are 48-47-0 against the spread this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.8 |
| HR | 19 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 9.1 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- The Brewers have been chosen as underdogs in 48 games this year and have walked away with the win 27 times (56.2%) in those games.
- Milwaukee has a mark of 21-19 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +101 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Brewers have an implied victory probability of 49.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Milwaukee and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 41 of its 97 opportunities.
- The Brewers are 49-48-0 against the spread in their 97 games that had a posted line this season.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 8-2 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.9 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 2.53 |
| K/9 | 11.9 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – Mike Soroka
- Soroka and his team have a record of 3-1-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander last pitched on Sunday against the Chicago White Sox, throwing three innings of relief while giving up two earned runs and allowing three hits.
- Soroka’s team has been victorious in 66.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 2-1.
- In games Soroka has started, his team is 3-1.
- In Soroka’s four starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Yates | 34 | 36.1 | 49 | 3.47 | 5 | 1 |
| Joe Jiménez | 32 | 32.2 | 38 | 3.03 | 7 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 30 | 28.2 | 34 | 4.08 | 0 | 17 |
| Collin McHugh | 28 | 39.2 | 29 | 3.63 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Tonkin | 22 | 48.2 | 40 | 3.14 | 1 | 1 |
Brewers Probable Pitcher – Freddy Peralta
- Peralta gets the start for the Brewers, his 19th of the season. He is 6-7 with a 4.41 ERA and 113 strikeouts over 98 2/3 innings pitched.
- The righty’s last appearance came on Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds, when he threw six scoreless innings while allowing only one hit.
- Peralta will aim to last five or more innings for his ninth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.4 innings per outing.
- In two of his 18 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
- The Brewers have been the moneyline underdog in five of Peralta’s starts this season, and they went 2-3 in those games.
- Peralta’s team has a 9-9 record in his starts this season.
- Peralta has started 18 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in nine of them.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoby Milner | 43 | 39 | 36 | 2.31 | 9 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 41 | 45.1 | 53 | 1.79 | 19 | 3 |
| Devin Williams | 37 | 37.1 | 52 | 1.69 | 0 | 24 |
| Elvis Peguero | 35 | 38 | 34 | 2.84 | 14 | 1 |
| Bryse Wilson | 31 | 43.2 | 35 | 2.68 | 3 | 3 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have a 37-14 record in games this season when they hit two or more homers.
- Atlanta has put up five or more extra-base hits in 27 games this season, and has gone 24-3 in those contests.
- The team is 48-20 in the games this season it has notched at least eight hits.
- Atlanta is 49-11 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Braves have gone 17-10 in the 27 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Brewers Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 42 games this season and are 35-7 in those matchups.
- Milwaukee is undefeated in nine games this season with five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 51 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 38-13.
- Milwaukee has a 46-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 34 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 26-8
Braves vs. Brewers Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-121)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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