Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 21, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 21, 2023

The Boston Red Sox (51-46) will look to Justin Turner, on a 15-game hitting streak, against the New York Mets (45-51) at 7:10 PM ET on Friday, at Fenway Park.

Both the Red Sox and the Mets have -109 moneyline odds to win this game. The total for this game is 10.

The betting facts in the article below use the latest odds as of July 21, 2023 at 7:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Red Sox vs Mets Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
No Favorite -109 -109 10

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have entered the game as favorites 44 times this season and won 24, or 54.5%, of those games.
  • Boston has a record of 25-20, a 55.6% win rate, when favored by -109 or more by bookmakers this season.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 52.2% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
  • Boston’s games have gone over the total in 52 of its 97 chances.
  • In 97 games with a spread this season, the Red Sox are 49-48-0 ATS.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.6
HR 15
ERA 4.03
K/9 10.7

Mets Betting Insights

  • The Mets have been victorious in 10, or 31.2%, of the 32 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This season, New York has come away with a win 10 times in 32 chances when named as an underdog of at least -109 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Mets have an implied victory probability of 52.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • New York and its opponents have gone over in 40 of its 97 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Mets have an against the spread mark of 39-58-0 in 97 games with a line this season.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.0
HR 12
ERA 3.50
K/9 8.3

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Kutter Crawford

  • Crawford’s team is 5-5-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander did not allow a run in six innings pitched on Sunday in his last outing, a matchup with the Chicago Cubs.
  • Crawford has six starts of five or more innings this season in 10 chances. He averages 3.7 innings per outing.
  • He has six appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 18 chances this season.
  • When Crawford starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 1-3.
  • In games Crawford has started, his team is 5-5.
  • Games Crawford has started this season hit the over six times in 10 chances.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Josh Winckowski 32 53.2 44 3.02 9 2
Kenley Jansen 32 32 38 3.09 0 20
Chris Martin 31 29.2 26 1.52 14 1
Brennan Bernardino 22 31.2 33 2.27 1 0
Richard Bleier 18 21 14 5.57 2 0

Mets Probable Pitcher – Kodai Senga

  • The Mets will send Senga (7-5) to the mound to make his 18th start of the season. He is 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 122 strikeouts through 95 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Saturday, the righty tossed six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing one earned run while surrendering four hits.
  • Senga is trying for his seventh straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.6 frames per start.
  • He has had three appearances this season in which he did not surrender an earned run.
  • The Mets were the moneyline underdog for two Senga starts this season — they lost both.
  • Senga’s team is 9-8 over his 17 starts.
  • Senga has had 17 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and four of those matchups finished over the total.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Adam Ottavino 42 39.1 38 3.66 11 6
Brooks Raley 40 33.2 36 2.14 18 1
David Robertson 38 42.1 47 2.13 6 14
Drew Smith 34 31 36 4.65 9 2
Trevor Gott 34 33.1 35 4.32 7 0

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • The Red Sox have a 22-9 record this season in games when they belt two or more homers.
  • Boston has collected five or more extra-base hits in 32 games this season, and has gone 23-9 in those outings.
  • The club has notched at least eight hits 69 times this season, and has a 42-27 record in those games.
  • Boston has a 42-10 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Red Sox have drawn five or more walks in 22 games this season, and are 12-10 in those contests.

Mets Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 31 games this season and are 16-15 in those matchups.
  • In 14 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 10-4.
  • In 53 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 34-19.
  • New York has won 34 of its 49 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have won 13 of their 23 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-109)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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