The Philadelphia Phillies (52-43) host the Milwaukee Brewers (53-43) at 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, with both teams hoping to win the series.
The Phillies (-114 moneyline odds to win) play the Brewers (-106) in an expected tight matchup. The total for this game is 8.5.
The betting facts in the following article are based off odds valid as of July 20, 2023 at 11:17 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Phillies vs Brewers Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -114 | -106 | 8.5 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- This season, the Phillies have been favored 57 times and won 35, or 61.4%, of those games.
- Philadelphia has entered 56 games this season favored by -114 or more and is 35-21 in those contests.
- The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 53.3% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
- Philadelphia and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 39 of 95 opportunities.
- In 95 games with a spread this season, the Phillies are 42-53-0 ATS.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.5 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 3.87 |
| K/9 | 7.2 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- The Brewers have been underdogs in 47 games this season and have come away with the win 26 times (55.3%) in those contests.
- This year, Milwaukee has won 23 of 44 games when listed as at least -106 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Brewers have an implied victory probability of 51.5% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Contests with Milwaukee has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 41 of 96 chances this season.
- The Brewers are 48-48-0 against the spread in their 96 games that had a posted line this season.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.8 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 2.83 |
| K/9 | 11.2 |
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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Taijuan Walker
- Walker’s team is 13-6-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander gave up two earned runs and allowed four hits in five innings pitched against the San Diego Padres on Saturday.
- Walker has pitched five or more innings in seven straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has made 19 appearances and finished three of them without allowing an earned run.
- Walker’s team is 10-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Walker’s team is 14-5 when he starts this season.
- Games started by Walker have an 8-10-1 record at hitting the over this season.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 42 | 40 | 60 | 3.15 | 3 | 16 |
| Gregory Soto | 40 | 35.2 | 37 | 4.79 | 13 | 1 |
| Yunior Marte | 27 | 25.2 | 24 | 4.91 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Vasquez | 27 | 38.2 | 32 | 2.09 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | 21 | 58.1 | 76 | 3.70 | 2 | 1 |
Brewers Probable Pitcher – Corbin Burnes
- The Brewers are sending Burnes (8-5) out to make his 20th start of the season. He is 8-5 with a 3.73 ERA and 115 strikeouts in 113 1/3 innings pitched.
- In his most recent appearance on Friday against the Cincinnati Reds, the righty threw six scoreless innings while surrendering two hits.
- Burnes will try to extend an 18-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 6.0 innings per appearance).
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in four of his 19 appearances this season.
- The Brewers have a 1-2 record in Burnes’ three starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Burnes’ team has won 11 of his 19 starts.
- Burnes’ starts went over the run total 12 times in 19 games with a set total this season.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoby Milner | 43 | 39 | 36 | 2.31 | 9 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 41 | 45.1 | 53 | 1.79 | 19 | 3 |
| Devin Williams | 37 | 37.1 | 52 | 1.69 | 0 | 24 |
| Elvis Peguero | 35 | 38 | 34 | 2.84 | 14 | 1 |
| Bryse Wilson | 31 | 43.2 | 35 | 2.68 | 3 | 3 |
Phillies Hitting Trends
- The Phillies have hit two or more round-trippers in 29 games this season, and are 22-7 in those outings.
- Philadelphia is 18-6 in games this season when it has put up at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has collected at least eight hits in 63 games this season, and is 41-22 in those contests.
- Philadelphia has a 37-5 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Phillies are 22-8 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Brewers Hitting Trends
- They have won 35 of the 42 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Milwaukee is undefeated in nine games this season with five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 50 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 37-13.
- Milwaukee has won 46 of its 53 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- In 34 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 26-8
Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-114)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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