Austin Riley takes a two-game homer streak into the Atlanta Braves’ (61-33) game versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (54-42) at 12:20 PM ET on Thursday, at Truist Park.
The Braves are a home favorite (-205) against the Diamondbacks (+170). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The betting insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of July 20, 2023 at 11:18 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -205 | +170 | 8.5 |
Braves Betting Insights
- This season, the Braves have been favored 81 times and won 53, or 65.4%, of those games.
- This season Atlanta has won 21 of its 28 games, or 75%, when favored by at least -205 on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Braves have a 67.2% chance to win.
- Atlanta and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 50 of 94 opportunities.
- The Braves are 47-47-0 against the spread in their 94 chances this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.6 |
| HR | 17 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 8.2 |
Diamondbacks Betting Insights
- The Diamondbacks have come away with 25 wins in the 51 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- This year, Arizona has won three of six games when listed as at least +170 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 37% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Arizona and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 43 of its 96 opportunities.
- The Diamondbacks have an against the spread record of 56-40-0 in 96 games with a line this season.
Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 5.46 |
| K/9 | 7.5 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – Spencer Strider
- Strider and his team are 11-8-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander gave up five earned runs and allowed eight hits in six innings pitched against the Chicago White Sox on Saturday.
- Strider has six starts in a row of five innings or more.
- In 19 appearances this season, he has finished four without allowing an earned run.
- Strider’s team is 16-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Strider’s team has won 16 of his 19 starts.
- In games Strider has started this season, the teams are 13-6-0 at hitting the over.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Yates | 33 | 35.1 | 47 | 3.31 | 5 | 1 |
| Joe Jiménez | 32 | 32.2 | 38 | 3.03 | 7 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 29 | 27.2 | 34 | 4.23 | 0 | 16 |
| Collin McHugh | 28 | 39.2 | 29 | 3.63 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Tonkin | 22 | 48.2 | 40 | 3.14 | 1 | 1 |
Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Zac Gallen
- The Diamondbacks will send Gallen (11-4) out to make his 21st start of the season. He is 11-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings pitched.
- In his last appearance on Saturday against the Toronto Blue Jays, the right-hander threw five innings, allowing three earned runs while surrendering six hits.
- Gallen is looking for his 11th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.2 innings per start.
- In five of his appearances this season he did not allow an earned run.
- The Diamondbacks have been the underdog on the moneyline in six of Gallen’s starts this season, and they went 3-3 in those games.
- Gallen’s team is 13-7 in his 20 starts.
- Gallen’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 10 of 20 contests.
Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Castro | 40 | 39.1 | 32 | 3.20 | 9 | 7 |
| Scott McGough | 40 | 47.2 | 59 | 3.78 | 12 | 7 |
| Kyle Nelson | 38 | 36 | 48 | 2.75 | 7 | 0 |
| José Ruiz | 34 | 41.2 | 36 | 5.62 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | 33 | 37.2 | 34 | 2.39 | 1 | 2 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have racked up at least two long balls in 50 games this season, and are 36-14 in those outings.
- Atlanta is 23-3 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The team is 47-20 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
- Atlanta is 48-11 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Braves have drawn at least five walks in 27 games this season, and are 17-10 in those contests.
Diamondbacks Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 33 games this season and are 25-8 in those matchups.
- Arizona has won 18 of its 23 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have a record of 51-22 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 63 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 51-12.
- In 36 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 19-17
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-205)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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