Guardians vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 17, 2023

The Cleveland Guardians hope to end their four-game losing run against the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-52), on Monday at 7:05 PM ET.

The Guardians are favored (-128 moneyline odds) when they visit the Pirates (+108). The over/under for the game is set at 9 total runs.

The betting insights in the article below reference odds valid as of July 17, 2023 at 7:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Guardians vs Pirates Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Guardians -128 +108 9

Guardians Betting Insights

  • This season, the Guardians have won 28 out of the 50 games, or 56%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • This season Cleveland has won 19 of its 36 games, or 52.8%, when favored by at least -128 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Guardians, based on the moneyline, is 56.1%.
  • So far this season, Cleveland and its opponents have hit the over in 39 of 93 games with a total.
  • The Guardians have an ATS record of 46-47-0 in 93 games with a spread this season.

Guardians Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 3.8
HR 9
ERA 4.91
K/9 8.1

Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have been chosen as underdogs in 73 games this year and have walked away with the win 29 times (39.7%) in those games.
  • Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 26-37 when favored by +108 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 48.1% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 46 of its 93 opportunities.
  • The Pirates have an against the spread record of 42-51-0 in 93 games with a line this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 2-8
Runs Per Game 3.5
HR 6
ERA 4.66
K/9 8.8

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Guardians Probable Pitcher – Xzavion Curry

  • In two games he pitched with a spread last season, Curry and his team failed to covered the spread both times.
  • The 24-year-old righty has pitched out of the bullpen 23 times already this campaign, but will make his first start.
  • Curry appeared in one game with his team as the moneyline favorite last season and lost.
  • The 24-year-old made two appearances last year and his team failed to win either of those games.

Guardians Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Emmanuel Clase 42 42.2 38 3.37 0 25
Trevor Stephan 41 39.1 41 3.43 13 2
Enyel De Los Santos 39 38.1 33 2.82 8 0
Eli Morgan 35 38.1 38 2.11 7 1
Nick Sandlin 31 34.2 35 2.60 3 0

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Quinn Priester

  • Priester gets the call to start for the Pirates, his first of the season.
  • The right-hander is pitching in his MLB debut at 22 years old.
  • Priester never pitched as a moneyline underdog a season ago.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Dauri Moreta 39 40.2 54 3.32 4 1
David Bednar 35 37 45 1.22 0 17
Colin Holderman 31 30.1 30 4.15 13 1
Yohan Ramirez 21 27 23 3.33 3 0
Duane Underwood Jr. 19 24.1 14 5.18 3 2

Guardians Hitting Trends

  • The Guardians have an 11-4 record in games this season when they hit at least two homers.
  • Cleveland has collected five or more extra-base hits in 17 games this season, and has gone 12-5 in those outings.
  • The team is 31-26 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
  • Cleveland is 26-6 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Guardians are 13-9 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Pirates Hitting Trends

  • They are 18-6 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • In 18 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 16-2.
  • They have won 29 of the 41 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Pittsburgh has a 26-5 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 27 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 13-14

Guardians vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+108)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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