Reds vs. Brewers Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 15, 2023

The Cincinnati Reds (50-42) and Milwaukee Brewers (50-42) meet on Saturday at 7:10 PM ET.

The favored Reds (-121 moneyline odds to win) host the Brewers (+102). The game’s over/under is set at 9.

The betting insights in this article reference odds valid as of July 15, 2023 at 7:20 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Reds vs Brewers Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Reds -121 +102 9

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have entered the game as favorites 23 times this season and won 16, or 69.6%, of those games.
  • Cincinnati has a record of 9-4 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -121 on the moneyline.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 54.8% chance of a victory for the Reds.
  • Games involving Cincinnati has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 53 of 92 chances this season.
  • In 92 games with a spread this season, the Reds are 57-35-0 ATS.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 13
ERA 3.64
K/9 7.2

Brewers Betting Insights

  • The Brewers have been underdogs in 43 games this season and have come away with the win 23 times (53.5%) in those contests.
  • This season, Milwaukee has been victorious 18 times in 35 chances when named as an underdog of at least +102 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Brewers have an implied victory probability of 49.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Milwaukee and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 41 of its 92 opportunities.
  • The Brewers have an against the spread record of 44-48-0 in 92 games with a line this season.

Brewers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 10
ERA 4.11
K/9 10.7

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Reds Probable Pitcher – Andrew Abbott

  • Abbott’s team is 5-2-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The left-hander gave up six earned runs and allowed nine hits in 4 1/3 innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday, July 8.
  • In seven starts this season, Abbott has lasted five or more innings six times, with an average of 5.9 innings per appearance.
  • He has made seven appearances and finished three of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Abbott and his team have won each of the three games he’s started as the moneyline favorite.
  • Abbott’s team has won six of his seven starts this season.
  • Out of Abbott’s seven starts with a total this season, two have hit the over.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 40 44 36 3.27 9 1
Buck Farmer 40 44.1 38 3.65 9 2
Alex Young 39 35.2 34 2.52 9 1
Alexis Diaz 39 40 61 2.03 1 26
Lucas Sims 35 36 46 3.00 13 1

Brewers Probable Pitcher – Freddy Peralta

  • Peralta (5-7) takes the mound first for the Brewers in his 18th start of the season. He has a 4.70 ERA in 92 2/3 innings pitched, with 107 strikeouts.
  • In his most recent time out on Thursday, July 6, the righty went 5 1/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • Peralta will aim to go five or more innings for his eighth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.4 frames per outing.
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in one of his 17 appearances this season.
  • The Brewers have been the underdog on the moneyline in four of Peralta’s starts this season, and they went 1-3 in those games.
  • Peralta’s team has won eight of his 17 starts.
  • Peralta has had 17 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and nine of those games finished over the total.

Brewers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Hoby Milner 41 36 33 2.50 9 0
Joel Payamps 39 43.1 49 1.87 17 3
Devin Williams 34 34.1 47 1.83 0 21
Elvis Peguero 33 36 31 3.00 12 1
Bryse Wilson 30 43.1 35 2.70 3 3

Reds Hitting Trends

  • The Reds are 25-3 this season in games when they send out two or more homers.
  • Cincinnati is 22-5 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club has strung together at least eight hits in 66 games this season, and is 47-19 in those contests.
  • Cincinnati is 51-9 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Reds have drawn at least five walks in 36 games this season, and are 16-20 in those contests.

Brewers Hitting Trends

  • They are 34-7 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Milwaukee has collected five or more extra-base hits in eight games this season and won each of them.
  • In 48 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 35-13.
  • In 52 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 45-7.
  • In 33 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 25-8

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Reds (-121)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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