Padres vs. Phillies Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 15, 2023

The Philadelphia Phillies (48-42) hope to break their three-game losing run versus the San Diego Padres (44-47), at 1:05 PM ET on Saturday.

As the favorite, the Padres (-167 on the moneyline to win) play at the Phillies (+139). The game’s total is 9.

The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of July 15, 2023 at 1:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Padres vs Phillies Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Padres -167 +139 9

Padres Betting Insights

  • This season, the Padres have won 36 out of the 68 games, or 52.9%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • This season San Diego has won 16 of its 29 games, or 55.2%, when favored by at least -167 on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 62.5% chance to win.
  • San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 35 of its 91 games with a total this season.
  • The Padres are 44-47-0 against the spread this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.5
HR 18
ERA 3.36
K/9 10.1

Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have been victorious in 15, or 42.9%, of the 35 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Philadelphia has been a moneyline underdog of -167 or longer five times, losing every contest.
  • The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 41.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Philadelphia and its opponents have gone over in 36 of its 90 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Phillies have posted a record of 40-50-0 against the spread this season.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.1
HR 14
ERA 3.70
K/9 8.8

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Blake Snell

  • Snell’s team is 8-10-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The left-hander allowed one hit in six scoreless innings pitched against the New York Mets on Sunday.
  • Snell has nine starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • If he manages to end his start without allowing an earned run, he’d extend his streak of appearances with no earned runs to three.
  • Snell’s team has won 53.8% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (7-6).
  • Snell’s team is 7-11 when he starts this season.
  • Out of Snell’s 18 starts with a total this season, seven have hit the over.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tim Hill 39 38.2 24 3.72 9 0
Josh Hader 36 34 51 1.06 0 22
Steven Wilson 34 37 40 2.43 16 0
Luís Garcia 33 31 31 5.81 9 0
Nick Martínez 32 65.2 56 3.84 11 1

Phillies Probable Pitcher – Ranger Suarez

  • The Phillies are sending Suarez (2-4) out to make his 12th start of the season. He is 2-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His most recent appearance came on Saturday against the Miami Marlins, when the lefty threw 5 2/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing eight hits.
  • Suarez is aiming for his 10th straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.6 frames per start.
  • He has had one outing this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
  • The Phillies have a 2-3 record in Suarez’s five starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Suarez’s team has put together a 6-5 record in his 11 starts.
  • Suarez has had 11 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and four of those matchups hit the over.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Craig Kimbrel 39 37 57 3.41 3 14
Gregory Soto 37 33.1 37 4.32 12 1
Andrew Vasquez 26 37.2 31 2.15 0 0
Yunior Marte 24 23.2 24 5.32 2 1
Jeff Hoffman 19 22.1 32 2.82 1 1

Padres Hitting Trends

  • The Padres have hit at least two round-trippers in 37 games this season, and are 20-17 in those outings.
  • San Diego has put up five or more extra-base hits in 22 games this season, and has gone 15-7 in those contests.
  • The club has put up at least eight hits in 49 games this season, and is 33-16 in those contests.
  • San Diego has a 36-6 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Padres are 23-15 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Phillies Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 27 games this season and are 20-7 in those matchups.
  • Philadelphia has gone 17-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • In 59 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 37-22.
  • Philadelphia has a 34-5 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 20 of their 28 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Phillies (+139)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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