The Miami Marlins (52-39) and Philadelphia Phillies (48-40) square off on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET at LoanDepot park, attempting to break a 1-1 series tie.
The Phillies are an underdog (+108 moneyline odds to win) when they square off against the Marlins (-128). The matchup has an over/under set at 7 total runs.
The betting trends in this article reflect odds as of July 9, 2023 at 1:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Phillies Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -128 | +108 | 7 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have been favorites in 44 games this season and won 29 (65.9%) of those contests.
- Miami has a record of 22-8, a 73.3% win rate, when favored by -128 or more by oddsmakers this season.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 56.1% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 42 of 91 opportunities.
- The Marlins are 44-47-0 against the spread this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 5.59 |
| K/9 | 9.8 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have come away with 15 wins in the 33 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- This season, Philadelphia has been victorious eight times in 20 chances when named as an underdog of at least +108 or longer on the moneyline.
- The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 48.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Philadelphia’s games have gone over the total in 34 of its 88 opportunities.
- The Phillies have an against the spread mark of 40-48-0 in 88 games with a line this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.6 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 2.77 |
| K/9 | 9.1 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo
- Luzardo and his team are 11-7-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The left-hander allowed five hits in six scoreless innings pitched against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday.
- Luzardo will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
- He has kept opponents from scoring an earned run in three straight appearances.
- When Luzardo starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 5-2.
- Luzardo’s team has won 12 of his 18 starts this season.
- Out of Luzardo’s 18 starts with a total this season, eight have hit the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 38 | 43.1 | 64 | 2.91 | 18 | 2 |
| Dylan Floro | 35 | 33.2 | 36 | 4.28 | 9 | 7 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 34 | 45.1 | 47 | 3.18 | 12 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | 31 | 31.1 | 42 | 2.59 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Puk | 29 | 29 | 36 | 4.34 | 0 | 15 |
Phillies Probable Pitcher – Aaron Nola
- Nola makes the start for the Phillies, his 19th of the season. He is 8-5 with a 4.30 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings pitched.
- The righty last pitched on Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays, when he tossed 7 1/3 innings, allowing one earned run while giving up five hits.
- Nola is aiming for his 18th straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.3 innings per start.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in two of his 18 outings this season.
- The Phillies have a 2-4 record in Nola’s six starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Nola’s team has compiled a 9-9 record over his 18 starts.
- Nola’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in nine of 18 games.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 39 | 37 | 57 | 3.41 | 3 | 14 |
| Gregory Soto | 36 | 32.1 | 36 | 4.18 | 12 | 1 |
| José Alvarado | 26 | 26 | 39 | 2.08 | 6 | 6 |
| Andrew Vasquez | 25 | 37 | 31 | 1.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Yunior Marte | 24 | 23.2 | 24 | 5.32 | 2 | 1 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins are 11-18 this season in games when they hit two or more long balls.
- Miami is 15-1 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
- The club has racked up at least eight hits in 74 games this season, and is 43-31 in those contests.
- Miami has a 35-10 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Marlins have drawn five or more walks in 23 games this season, and are 12-11 in those contests.
Phillies Hitting Trends
- They are 20-7 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Philadelphia has gone 17-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 37-22 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 39 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 34-5.
- In 27 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 20-7
Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-128)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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