Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 7, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 7, 2023

The Philadelphia Phillies (47-39) and Miami Marlins (51-38) battle in NL East play, on Friday at 6:40 PM ET.

The Phillies are a favorite (-133) at the Marlins (+113). The total for this game is set at 7.5.

The betting facts in the following article are based off odds valid as of July 7, 2023 at 1:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Phillies vs Marlins Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Phillies -133 +113 7.5

Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have been favorites in 52 games this season and won 31 (59.6%) of those contests.
  • Philadelphia has a record of 24-13 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -133 on the moneyline.
  • The Phillies have a 57.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • So far this season, Philadelphia and its opponents have hit the over in 33 of 86 games with a total.
  • The Phillies are 40-46-0 ATS in their 86 games with a spread this season.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 6.1
HR 16
ERA 2.74
K/9 10.2

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have come away with 23 wins in the 46 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Miami has a mark of 14-13 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +113 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 46.9% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Miami and its opponents have gone over in 41 of its 89 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Marlins have posted a record of 42-47-0 against the spread this season.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.5
HR 10
ERA 5.17
K/9 9.4

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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Zack Wheeler

  • Wheeler’s team is 8-9-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Saturday, when he threw five innings against the Washington Nationals, giving up four earned runs while allowing seven hits.
  • Wheeler has pitched five or more innings in five straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has made 17 appearances and finished four of them without allowing an earned run.
  • When Wheeler starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 9-6.
  • In games Wheeler has started, his team is 11-6.
  • Out of Wheeler’s 17 starts with a total this season, seven have hit the over.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Craig Kimbrel 38 36 57 3.50 3 13
Gregory Soto 36 32.1 36 4.18 12 1
José Alvarado 26 26 39 2.08 6 6
Andrew Vasquez 25 37 31 1.70 0 0
Yunior Marte 23 22.1 23 5.24 2 1

Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara

  • Alcantara gets the start for the Marlins, his 18th of the season. He is 3-7 with a 5.02 ERA and 89 strikeouts through 107 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last appearance on Sunday, the right-hander tossed five innings against the Atlanta Braves, allowing four earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • Alcantara will look to build on a 15-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 6.3 innings per outing).
  • In one of his appearances this season he has not allow an earned run.
  • The Marlins have a 2-5 record in Alcantara’s seven starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Alcantara’s team has compiled a 7-10 record in his 17 starts.
  • Alcantara has had 17 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and 12 of those outings hit the over.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tanner Scott 36 41 61 3.07 16 2
Dylan Floro 35 33.2 36 4.28 9 7
Huascar Brazoban 33 43.2 46 3.30 11 0
Steven Okert 30 31 41 2.61 9 0
A.J. Puk 27 27 32 3.67 0 14

Phillies Hitting Trends

  • The Phillies are 19-7 this season in games when they send out at least two homers.
  • Philadelphia has gone 17-6 in its 23 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The team has strung together at least eight hits 58 times this season, and has a 36-22 record in those games.
  • Philadelphia has a 34-5 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Phillies are 20-7 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 29 games this season and are 11-18 in those matchups.
  • Miami has gone 15-1 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 42 of the 72 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Miami has a 34-10 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 22 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 11-11

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (+113)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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