Reds vs. Padres Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – July 2, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on July 2, 2023

The San Diego Padres (38-45) meet the Cincinnati Reds (44-39), a game after Manny Machado went deep twice in a 12-5 victory over the Reds, at 1:40 PM ET on Sunday.

The Reds are favored at home (-130) against the Padres (+110). The contest has an over/under of 11.

The betting insights in the article below reflect odds as of July 2, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Reds vs Padres Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Reds -130 +110 11

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have won 12, or 63.2%, of the 19 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Cincinnati has entered nine games this season favored by -130 or more and is 7-2 in those contests.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 56.5% chance of a victory for the Reds.
  • So far this season, Cincinnati and its opponents have hit the over in 49 of 83 games with a total.
  • The Reds are 51-32-0 ATS in their 83 games with a spread this season.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 6.5
HR 21
ERA 5.97
K/9 8.1

Padres Betting Insights

  • The Padres have been victorious in eight, or 38.1%, of the 21 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • San Diego has a mark of 3-9 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +110 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Padres have an implied victory probability of 47.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 31 of its 83 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Padres are 37-46-0 against the spread in their 83 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 13
ERA 4.14
K/9 8.5

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Reds Probable Pitcher – Andrew Abbott

  • Abbott’s team has covered the spread in each of the five opportunities this season.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Tuesday, when he threw six innings against the Baltimore Orioles, giving up one earned run while allowing two hits.
  • Abbott has pitched five or more innings in five straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has finished three appearances without allowing an earned run in five chances this season.
  • Abbott’s team is 2-0 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
  • Abbott’s team has yet to lose any of his starts this season.
  • Games started by Abbott have a 1-4-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Buck Farmer 37 40.2 35 3.54 7 2
Ian Gibaut 36 39.1 32 3.66 8 1
Alex Young 35 32.2 33 2.76 8 1
Alexis Diaz 35 36 57 2.00 1 22
Lucas Sims 30 31.1 40 3.16 13 0

Padres Probable Pitcher – Adrian Morejon

  • Morejon gets the call to start for the Padres, his first this season.
  • The 24-year-old lefty came out of the bullpen in his most recent outing this season, one of four appearances so far.
  • Morejon never pitched as a moneyline underdog a season ago.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tim Hill 35 35 22 3.34 9 0
Josh Hader 31 29.2 45 1.21 0 18
Brent Honeywell Jr. 29 40.2 36 3.32 3 0
Luís Garcia 29 27.1 26 5.93 8 0
Nick Martínez 26 60 48 3.90 9 1

Reds Hitting Trends

  • The Reds have hit at least two dingers in 24 games this season, and are 21-3 in those contests.
  • Cincinnati is 20-5 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club is 44-19 in the games this season it has collected eight or more hits.
  • Cincinnati is 47-9 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Reds have gone 13-19 over the 32 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Padres Hitting Trends

  • They are 17-16 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • In 20 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 14-6.
  • They have won 29 of the 44 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • In 36 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 31-5.
  • They have a 20-15 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Reds vs. Padres Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Reds (-130)
Over/Under Pick: Under (11)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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