The Milwaukee Brewers (43-38) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (38-42) to open a three-game series at PNC Park, with first pitch at 7:05 PM ET on Friday. The Brewers are coming off a series victory over the Mets, and the Pirates a series win over the Padres.
The Brewers are a favorite (-137) against the Pirates (+116). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The betting trends in the article below are based off odds valid as of June 30, 2023 at 7:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Brewers vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | -137 | +116 | 8.5 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- The Brewers have been favorites in 41 games this season and won 22 (53.7%) of those contests.
- Milwaukee is 11-11 this season when entering a game favored by -137 or more on the moneyline.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 57.8% chance of a victory for the Brewers.
- Milwaukee’s games have gone over the total in 33 of its 81 chances.
- In 81 games with a spread this season, the Brewers are 37-44-0 ATS.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.5 |
| HR | 6 |
| ERA | 3.74 |
| K/9 | 6.5 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have been underdogs in 61 games this season and have come away with the win 26 times (42.6%) in those contests.
- Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 21-23 when favored by +116 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
- The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 46.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
- Pittsburgh’s games have gone over the total in 38 of its 80 opportunities.
- The Pirates have posted a record of 38-42-0 against the spread this season.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.4 |
| HR | 6 |
| ERA | 3.54 |
| K/9 | 7.0 |
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Brewers Probable Pitcher – Freddy Peralta
- Peralta and his team have a record of 6-9-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed five innings while giving up three earned runs on four hits in a matchup with the Cleveland Guardians.
- Peralta has pitched five or more innings in five straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- In 15 appearances this season, he has finished one without allowing an earned run.
- Peralta’s team is 6-5 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Peralta’s team is 7-8 when he starts this season.
- In Peralta’s 15 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over seven times.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoby Milner | 37 | 31.2 | 27 | 2.56 | 8 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 33 | 37.1 | 41 | 2.17 | 14 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | 28 | 28.2 | 38 | 1.57 | 0 | 16 |
| Elvis Peguero | 27 | 30 | 26 | 2.70 | 8 | 1 |
| Bryse Wilson | 26 | 38.2 | 30 | 2.56 | 2 | 3 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Osvaldo Bido
- Bido gets the start for the Pirates, his fourth of the season. He is 0-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 18 strikeouts over 15 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his most recent time out on Saturday, the right-hander threw 5 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins, giving up two earned runs while surrendering nine hits.
- Bido is aiming for his third straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.1 frames per start.
- The Pirates were named the moneyline underdog for three Bido starts this season — they lost all of the games.
- All three of Bido’s starts this season have ended in a loss for his team.
- Bido’s starts went over the run total one time in three games with a set total this season.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dauri Moreta | 33 | 34 | 45 | 3.71 | 4 | 1 |
| David Bednar | 30 | 31.1 | 37 | 1.44 | 0 | 16 |
| Duane Underwood Jr. | 19 | 24.1 | 14 | 5.18 | 3 | 2 |
| Chad Kuhl | 12 | 38.1 | 31 | 8.45 | 0 | 1 |
| Angel Perdomo | 11 | 10.2 | 17 | 3.37 | 2 | 0 |
Brewers Hitting Trends
- The Brewers have hit at least two round-trippers in 37 games this season, and are 31-6 in those outings.
- Milwaukee is undefeated in its six games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The club has strung together eight or more hits 40 times this season, and has a 31-9 record in those games.
- Milwaukee is 40-4 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Brewers are 21-8 in the 29 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They are 17-5 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 15-2.
- They have a record of 27-9 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Pittsburgh has a 24-4 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 24 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 12-12
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+116)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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