The Cincinnati Reds (43-38) will look for continued power from a batter on a hot streak against the San Diego Padres (37-44) on Friday at 5:10 PM ET, at Great American Ball Park. TJ Friedl is currently on a two-game homer streak.
The Reds are an underdog (+120 on the moneyline) when they takes the field at home against the Padres (-142). The total in the game is set at 11 total runs.
The betting insights in this article use the latest odds as of June 30, 2023 at 3:20 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Padres vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | -142 | +120 | 11 |
Padres Betting Insights
- The Padres have entered the game as favorites 59 times this season and won 29, or 49.2%, of those games.
- San Diego has a record of 24-19, a 55.8% win rate, when favored by -142 or more by oddsmakers this season.
- The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 58.7% chance of a victory for the Padres.
- Games involving San Diego has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 29 of 81 chances this season.
- The Padres are 36-45-0 against the spread in their 81 chances this season.
Padres Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 2-8 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.4 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 4.34 |
| K/9 | 8.0 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been victorious in 31, or 50%, of the 62 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- Cincinnati has a mark of 21-23 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +120 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Reds have an implied victory probability of 45.5% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
- Cincinnati and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 47 of its 81 opportunities.
- The Reds are 50-31-0 against the spread in their 81 games that had a posted line this season.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.7 |
| HR | 23 |
| ERA | 5.93 |
| K/9 | 8.5 |
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Padres Probable Pitcher – Seth Lugo
- Lugo’s team is 5-5-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander gave up three earned runs and allowed seven hits in five innings pitched against the Washington Nationals on Sunday.
- Lugo has two starts in a row of five innings or more.
- He has not pitched this season without allowing at least one earned run.
- Lugo’s team has a record of 3-5 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- Lugo’s team has won four of his 10 starts.
- Out of Lugo’s 10 starts with a total this season, four have hit the over.
Padres Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | 34 | 34 | 22 | 3.44 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Hader | 30 | 28.2 | 42 | 1.26 | 0 | 18 |
| Luís Garcia | 28 | 26.1 | 25 | 4.78 | 8 | 0 |
| Brent Honeywell Jr. | 27 | 39.1 | 36 | 3.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Martínez | 25 | 58.1 | 47 | 4.01 | 9 | 1 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Graham Ashcraft
- Ashcraft (3-6) gets the starting nod for the Reds in his 15th start of the season. He has a 7.17 ERA in 69 2/3 innings pitched, with 52 strikeouts.
- The right-hander’s most recent time out came on Saturday against the Atlanta Braves, when he went four innings, surrendering six earned runs while giving up 10 hits.
- Ashcraft has pitched five or more innings in a game 10 times this season entering this outing.
- In one of his 14 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
- The Reds are 5-7 in Ashcraft’s 12 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Ashcraft’s team is 6-8 over his 14 starts.
- Ashcraft has had 14 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in nine of those games.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Farmer | 36 | 39.2 | 35 | 3.18 | 7 | 2 |
| Ian Gibaut | 35 | 38.1 | 32 | 3.52 | 8 | 1 |
| Alex Young | 34 | 32 | 33 | 2.81 | 8 | 1 |
| Alexis Diaz | 34 | 35 | 57 | 1.80 | 1 | 22 |
| Lucas Sims | 29 | 30 | 38 | 3.30 | 13 | 0 |
Padres Hitting Trends
- The Padres have racked up at least two dingers in 32 games this season, and are 16-16 in those contests.
- San Diego has gone 13-6 in its 19 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The club is 28-14 in the games this season it has collected eight or more hits.
- San Diego is 30-4 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Padres are 20-15 over the 35 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 23 games this season and are 20-3 in those matchups.
- Cincinnati has won 20 of its 25 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 61 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 43-18.
- Cincinnati has a 46-8 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have won 13 of their 31 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Padres vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Reds (+120)
Over/Under Pick: Under (11)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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